patrickscottshields

Karma: 116

patrickscottshields 20 Apr 2010 1:14 UTC
11 points
on: Attention Lurkers: Please say hi
Hi! I’m Patrick Shields, an 18-year-old computer science student who loves AI, rationality and musical theater. I’m happy I finally signed up—thanks for the reminder!

patrickscottshields 21 Mar 2012 2:59 UTC
0 points
on: The limited predictor problem
In section 2, you say:

Unfortunately you can’t solve most LPPs this way [...]

By solving most LPPs, do you mean writing a general-purpose agent program that correctly maximizes its utility function under most LPPs? I tried to write a program to see if I could show a counterexample, but got stuck when it came to defining what exactly a solution would consist of.

Does the agent get to know N? Can we place a lower bound on N to allow the agent to time to parse the problem and become aware of its actions? Otherwise, wouldn’t low N values force failure for any non-trivial agent?
What links here?
- patrickscottshields's comment on Common mistakes people make when thinking about decision theory by cousin_it (28 Mar 2012 12:44 UTC; 3 points)

patrickscottshields 28 Mar 2012 12:44 UTC
3 points
on: Common mistakes people make when thinking about decision theory
My education in decision theory has been fairly informal so far, and I’ve had trouble understanding some of your recent technical posts because I’ve been uncertain about what assumptions you’ve made. I think more explicitly stating your assumptions could lessen the frequency of arguments about assumptions by decreasing the frequency of readers mistakenly believing you’ve made different assumptions. It could also decrease inquiries about your assumptions, like the one I made on your post on the limited predictor problem.

One way to do this could be to, in your posts, link to other works that define your assumptions. Such links could also function to connect less-experienced readers with relevant background reading.

patrickscottshields 28 Mar 2012 20:13 UTC
2 points
in reply to: cousin_it’s comment on: Common mistakes people make when thinking about decision theory
I have several questions. I hadn’t asked them because I thought I should do more research before taking up your time. Here are some examples:
- What does it mean to solve the limited predictor problem? In what form should a solution be—an agent program?
- What is a decision, more formally? I’m familiar with the precondition/effect paradigm of classical AI planning but I’ve had trouble conceptualizing Newcomb’s problem in that paradigm.
- What, formally, is an agent? What parameters/inputs do your agent programs take?
- What does it mean for an agent prove a theorem in some abstract formal system S?
I will plan to do more research and then ask more detailed questions in the relevant discussion threads if I still don’t understand.

I think my failure to comprehend parts of your posts is more due to my lack of familiarity with the subject matter than your communication style. Adding links to works that establish the assumptions or formal systems you’re using could help less advanced readers start learning that background material without you having to significantly lengthen your posts.

Thanks for the help!

patrickscottshields 6 Apr 2012 19:26 UTC
0 points
in reply to: cousin_it’s comment on: Common mistakes people make when thinking about decision theory
Thank you. Your comment resolved some of my confusion. While I didn’t understand it entirely, I am happy to have accrued a long list of relevant background reading.

patrickscottshields 17 Apr 2012 2:20 UTC
0 points
on: What are you working on? April 2012
I’m writing a forward planner to help me figure out whether to attend university for another year to finish my computer science degree, or do something else such as working for my startup full-time. I have a working prototype of the planner but still need to input most of the possible actions and their effects.

I chose this project because I think my software will do a better job assessing the utility of alternatives than my intuition, and because I implemented a forward planner for an artificial intelligence class I’m taking and wanted to apply something similar to my own life to help me plan my future.

patrickscottshields 19 Jun 2012 16:38 UTC
2 points
on: Suggest alternate names for the “Singularity Institute”
I like “AI Risk Reduction Institute”. It’s direct, informative, and gives an accurate intuition about the organization’s activities. I think “AI Risk Reduction” is the most intuitive phrase I’ve heard so far with respect to the organization.
- “AI Safety” is too vague. If I heard it mentioned, I don’t think I’d have a good intuition about what it meant. Also, it gives me a bad impression because I visualize things like parents ordering their children to fasten their seatbelts.
- “Beneficial Architectures” is too vague. It’s not clear it’s AI-related.
- “AI Impacts Research” is too vague and non-prescriptive. Unlike “AI Risk Reduction”, it’s ambiguous in its intentions.

patrickscottshields 21 Jun 2012 1:54 UTC
0 points
on: Personality analysis in terms of parameters
There are many different ways we could represent a personality (to varying degrees of accuracy.) I have not found a widely-accepted format, but I think we can each make our own for now. Whenever you wonder why someone acted a certain way, think about what the relevant parameters might have been and write them down. If several people work on this and share their results, perhaps one or more standardized personality representation formats will emerge.

The parameters collected by online user profiles such as those maintained by Facebook, Google Plus, or OkCupid might provide some inspiration.

If we had a good dataset of people and their personality attributes along with some performance measures, we could use machine learning to do neat things like predict relationship compatibility between two people. Imagine a rationalist dating service that used personality data to suggest matches!

Schema.org defines a “Person” model but it focuses primarily on circumstantial attributes rather than mental state.

patrickscottshields 4 Jul 2012 2:18 UTC
3 points
in reply to: TimS’s comment on: Open Thread, July 1-15, 2012
I’m interested in idea 2. If you write about it, I’m especially interested in what you think we should do about it.

Roommate interest and coordination thread

patrickscottshields2 Aug 2012 9:22 UTC

13 points

47 comments1 min readLW link

patrickscottshields 2 Aug 2012 9:26 UTC
8 points
on: Roommate interest and coordination thread
I attended the Center for Applied Rationality’s June rationality camp in Berkeley, and would very much like to have a full-time living environment similar to the environment at camp. I’m very interested in joining or working to create a living environment that values open communication and epistemic hygiene, facilitates house-wide life-hacking experimentation, provides a collaborative, fulfilling environment to live and work in, and those sorts of things.

I’ll finish my computer science degree in May, and I plan to make changes to my living situation at that time. I plan to apply a portion of my time over the next ten months to identifying and assessing potential living environments, and I am interested in collaborating with others throughout the process. Contact me if you think collaboration could be mutually beneficial (I would rather you err on the side of contacting me.)

I started a software development company last summer under which I have been developing a web application that assesses tasks’ utility in order to suggest high-utility tasks to users. I have not publicly released the application, but I use it daily to manage my own tasks. Contingent on my startup remaining a high-utility prospect in my mind, I’d like to work on it full-time after I graduate. I am very interested in live-work arrangements (e.g. working and living on the same premises), or in living close to a coworking space or an affordable office space.

My finances are limited right now. That would change if I got a full-time software engineering job once I graduate, but I’d rather work for my startup and finance things through part-time or contract work if necessary (if you’re interested in hiring me, please contact me.) I’m especially interested in collaborating with other programmers, working in Python or Go, working on data visualizations in D3, programming rationality exercises, or working on something that qualifies as “data science”.

I live in Kansas, and it’s alright here. I preferred the weather in Berkeley when I visited there last month. I think I would enjoy living in the San Francisco bay area, but the cost of living is high there. I’m interested in identifying affordable places to live that are competitive with the amenities of the bay area. I’m also very interested in meeting and networking with potential roommates.

In terms of resources, I have found Sperling’s BestPlaces to have a lot of good information about U.S. cities.
What links here?
- patrickscottshields's comment on Who Wants To Start An Important Startup? by ShannonFriedman (14 Aug 2012 17:05 UTC; 16 points)
- patrickscottshields's comment on Roommate interest and coordination thread by patrickscottshields (14 Aug 2012 18:24 UTC; 0 points)

patrickscottshields 2 Aug 2012 9:36 UTC
0 points
on: Roommate interest and coordination thread
Discuss the concept of this thread here. For example, how could it be more useful? What would you do differently?
What links here?
- Roommate interest and coordination thread by patrickscottshields (2 Aug 2012 9:22 UTC; 13 points)

patrickscottshields 2 Aug 2012 18:14 UTC
0 points
in reply to: Kevin’s comment on: Roommate interest and coordination thread
Are you looking to move in there?

patrickscottshields 2 Aug 2012 19:14 UTC
6 points
on: Looking for a roommate in Mountain View
Thanks for posting this. It inspired me to write a more general roommate coordination thread. I’m interested in the living situation you describe, but my housing situation is set until I finish my computer science degree in May. I also don’t have a steady source of income right now.

When considering my prospects about where to live post-graduation, I’m torn between Silicon Valley and places that might have a higher quality/cost ratio. Can you share some of your rationale for choosing Silicon Valley over your other options? How would not having a steady source of income change your thinking about where to live?

patrickscottshields 2 Aug 2012 23:14 UTC
3 points
in reply to: [deleted]’s comment on: Roommate interest and coordination thread
Thanks for sharing. What’s your plan? How much of your time do you think it would be optimal to spend assessing your options with regard to where to live?

I love the idea of living with “agent-y” rationalists, but I definitely don’t love the idea of slowly discovering that I’m intractably not motivated or smart enough to truly “hang.”

My impression is that the majority of aspiring rationalists are willing to work with each other through our flaws, rather than expecting perfection. I suspect the smartest, most popular people in the rationality community take up a disproportionate amount of our attention, which can make inadequacy feel more plausible than it really is. If we try, I don’t think we’ll have trouble finding awesome living environments.

patrickscottshields 4 Aug 2012 3:07 UTC
4 points
in reply to: [deleted]’s comment on: Roommate interest and coordination thread
I enjoyed reading your analysis. If there’s anything in particular you want input on, I’d be happy to share my perspective.

patrickscottshields 4 Aug 2012 3:34 UTC
3 points
in reply to: hamnox’s comment on: Roommate interest and coordination thread
Taboo “coordinate”.

What do you think are the best places to live?

patrickscottshields 7 Aug 2012 1:50 UTC
1 point
in reply to: hamnox’s comment on: Roommate interest and coordination thread
Thanks for this detailed post!

I have assumed a certain level of compromise when considering living situations. For example, I have assumed that people would not be willing to move a specific city for the primary purpose of joining an awesome living environment, but would instead be willing only to optimize within preexisting geographical constraints.

If there were enough people willing to relocate somewhere for the primary purpose of establishing an awesome living environment, that opens up a new class of opportunities more appealing than the ones I’ve been considering. For example, if there were several people interested in working for their own startups, maybe they could lease a building together, or utilize collective purchasing to lower the costs of bookkeeping or legal services. (Is anyone interested in doing that?)

I think such an intentional living community would be significantly more difficult to create than finding a few compatible roommates in a particular city, but I’m willing to look into it further.
What links here?
- patrickscottshields's comment on Who Wants To Start An Important Startup? by ShannonFriedman (14 Aug 2012 17:05 UTC; 16 points)

patrickscottshields 7 Aug 2012 2:19 UTC
5 points
on: SI/CFAR Are Looking for Contract Web Developers
What are you developing? Why are you developing it in PHP?

patrickscottshields 14 Aug 2012 17:05 UTC
16 points
on: Who Wants To Start An Important Startup?
I started MyPersonalDev a year ago to develop a data-driven personal development web application. The minimum viable product I envision is a task manager for people who like to think about utility functions (give your tasks utility functions!) My long-range vision is to use machine learning and collective intelligence to automate things like next-action determinations, value-of-information calculations, and probability estimates. I’ve written most of the minimum viable product already and use it extensively to manage my own tasks, but I haven’t released anything publicly because it’s easier to develop the software without having an existing user base.

The downside of having no user base is that there’s no revenue, which is a real issue for me as a cash-strapped college student. I’ll graduate in May with a degree in computer science, and I’ve been thinking hard about what to do after that. My impression is that working for my startup post-graduation would likely involve a period of extreme financial difficulty that I’d like to avoid. Consequently, I’ve been considering shutting it down and trying to get the best existing job I can get, using salary as the base metric and making adjustments for things like quality-of-life and is-the-company-doing-something-worthwhile. While ideologically frustrating (I like the idea of working for my startup full-time post-graduation), that has seemed to be the most instrumentally rational thing for me to do.

Here are some options I’ll throw out there:
- If there’s collective interest in MyPersonalDev as a vehicle for some of the positive impact we’re talking about in this thread, I’m interested in working with people to make that happen. Anyone interested in sponsoring development of the software or otherwise making it more financially viable during its startup phase should contact me. For the next nine months before I graduate, it could help to have a small, cheap office space near campus, as I’ll be living on-campus and can’t conduct commercial activity there. I’ll plan to put a media kit together with more information on the company for interested parties.
- If other programmers want to work with me on MyPersonalDev, either now over the internet, or in-person once I graduate in May, that would be exciting! I’m not sure how we would work it out in terms of equity and salary, but I’m open to suggestions. Right now the company is a stock corporation, of which I am the sole director and shareholder. I like that because it’s lean (I don’t need to get permission from other people to make business decisions.) That said, I’d want collaborators to be fairly compensated. Some sort of funding or revenue seems necessary for this to happen.
- If I don’t end up working for MyPersonalDev full-time post-graduation, I’m available as a programmer and aspiring rationalist who wants to work on something important. Until May, I’m available online; after May, I’m available in-person.
- If people want to form a startup together, maybe they should live together too! I started a roommate interest coordination thread two weeks ago for purposes like that.
- Like I said in that thread: If there were several people interested in working for their own startups, maybe they could lease a building together, or utilize collective purchasing to lower the costs of bookkeeping or legal services. (Is anyone interested in doing that?)
Look at my history of posts for more information about me. Like I said in a recent post:

I’m especially interested in collaborating with other programmers, working in Python or Go, working on data visualizations in D3, programming rationality exercises, or working on something that qualifies as “data science”.

I want to work on something important. I want to work on a team. And I want to make enough money to live comfortably. When I graduate in May, I’m very interested in moving towards a more optimal living and working situation. Could we be a fit? Get in touch!
What links here?
- patrickscottshields's comment on Idea: Self-Improving Task Management Software by rlp10 (10 Mar 2013 23:25 UTC; 2 points)

patrickscottshields

Room­mate in­ter­est and co­or­di­na­tion thread

Roommate interest and coordination thread