Hmmmmm there is a lot here let me see if I can narrow down on some key points.
Once you have the right algorithm, it really is as simple as increasing some parameter or neuron count.
There are some problems that do not scale well(or at all). For example, doubling the computational power applied to solving the knapsack problem will let you solve a problem size that is one element bigger. Why should we presume that intelligence scales like an O(n) problem and not an O(2^n) problem?
What is happening here? Are both people just looking at a picture and guessing numbers, or can the IQ 150 person program a simulation while the IQ 100 person is looking at the Navier stokes equation trying (and failing) to figure out what it means.
I picked weather prediction as an exemplar problem because
(1) NWP programs are the product of not just single scientists but the efforts of thousands. (the intelligences of many people combined into a product that is far greater than any could produce individually)
(II) The problem is fairly well understood and observation limited. If we could simultaneously measure the properties of 1m^3 voxels of atmsophere our NWP would be dramatically improved. But our capabilities are closer to one per day(non-simultaneous) measurements of spots rougly 40 km in diameter. Access to the internet will not improve this. The measurements don’t exist. Other chaotic systems like ensembles of humans or stocks may very well have this property.
Smart humans to lots better than dumb ones. Small differences in intelligence make the difference between a loglinear sort and a quadratic one.
But hardly any programs are the result of individual efforts. They’re the product of thousands. If a quadratic sort slips through it gets caught by a profiler and someone else fixes it. (And everyone uses compilers, interpreters, libraries, etc...)
A lot of science seems to be done by a handful of top scientists. The likes of Einstein wouldn’t be a thing if a higher intelligence didn’t make you much better at discovering some things.
This is not my view of science. I tend to understand someone like Einstein as an inspirational story we tell when the history of physics in the early 20th century is fact a tale of dozens, if not hundreds. But I do think this is getting towards the crux.
For seeing through the fog of war, I’m reminded of the German Tank Problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_tank_problem
Statistical estimates were ~50x more accurate than intelligence estimates in the cannonical example. When you include the strong and reasonable incentives for all participants to propagandize, it is nearly impossible to get accurate information about an ongoing conflict.
I think as rationalists, if we’re going to see more clearly than conventional wisdom, we need to find sources of information that have more fundamental basis. I don’t yet know what those would be.