I don’t share your intuition here. I think many people would see blue as the “band together” option and would have confidence that others will do the same. For the average responder, the question would reduce to “choose blue to signal trust in humanity, choose red to signal selfish cowardice”.
“Innate faith in human compassion, especially in a crisis” is the co-ordination mechanism, and I think there is pretty strong support for that notion if you look at how we respond to crises in real life and how we depict them in fiction. That is the narrative we tell ourselves at least, but narrative is what’s important here.
I would be surprised if blue was less than 30%, and would predict around 60%.
In some cases something like this might work:
“The plumber says it’s fixed, so hopefully it is”
Or
“The plumber says it’s fixed, so it probably is”
Which I think conveys”there’s an assumption I’m making here, but I’m just putting a flag in the ground to return to if things don’t play out as expected”