I don’t understand how the second wave can’t be explained by increase in testing. Before only people who were sick were allowed to be tested, who correlate more with hospital visits, which correlates more with deaths, so it more closely follows the death graph.
Now anyone can be tested and it’s estimated that 40 to 80 percent of people are asymptomatic who will never even see a doctor.
Hence the infection rate skyrockets and the death rate remains the same.
So I don’t follow the reasoning.
Additionally there’s the possibility that death rates were inflated before by doctors labeling any death that test positive for covid, even if a car accident, a covid death. From a cynic’s perspective there is also more financial renumeration from insurance the medicare for a corona labeled patient.
This is supposedly a very stable virus.