Kutta
It’s plain sensationalism, IMO.
There is quite the chance he’ll drop dead, so I personally think his method is irrational under the vast majority of circumstances. In the case that winning an endurance bike race saves one million lives this strategy is not that bad, however.
Does anyone know when will the 2009 Summit videos be available?
Oh, thank you very much!
It’s been discussed somewhere in the second half of this podcast:
http://www.speakupstudios.com/Listen.aspx?ShowUID=333035
I think Alicorn is certainly not overanalizing in the sense that fiction is always fiction and usual methods of analysis apply regardless of the author’s proclaimed intentions or the amount of resources spent at writing. On the other hand I think Eliezer’s fictions are perfectly good enough for their purpose, and while the flaws pointed out by Alicorn are certainly there I think it’s unreasonable to expect Eliezer to be like a professional fiction writer.
Why? I think, maybe because GEB integrates form, style and thematic content into a seamless whole in a unique and pretty much artistic way, while still being essentially non-fiction. And GEB is probably second to nothing at conveying the notion of an intertwined reality. It also provides very intelligent and intuitive introduction to a whole lot of different areas. Sometimes you can’t do all the job of conveying extremely complex ideas in a succinct essay; just look at the epic amount of writing Eliezer had to do merely to establish a bare framework for FAI discussion (besides, from the fact that Eliezer likes GEB does not follow that GEB should be a recommended reading for AI or rationalist arts. It just means that Eliezer thinks it’s a good book).
I think that there isn’t any point in attempting to come up with anything more exact than the general musings of the Fun Theory. It really takes a superintelligence and knowledge of CEV to conceive such rules (and it’s not even guaranteed that there’d be anything that resemble “rules” per se).
As I said, there is not necessarily any kind of rationalist/AI content in GEB directly relevant to us. It could be well just simply a good book.
„The hard part is actually being rational, which requires that you postpone the fun but currently irrelevant arguments until the pressing problem is solved, even perhaps with the full knowledge that you are actually probably giving them up entirely. Delaying gratification in this manner is not a unique difficulty faced by transhumanists. Anyone pursuing a long-term goal, such as a medical student or PhD candidate, does the same. The special difficulty that you will have to overcome is the difficulty of staying on track in the absence of social support or of appreciation of the problem, and the difficulty of overcoming your mind’s anti-religion defenses, which will be screaming at you to cut out the fantasy and go live a normal life, with the normal empty set of beliefs about the future and its potential.”
– Michael Vassar
„Someone willing to embrace unreasonable arguments for his group shows a willingness to continue supporting them no matter which way the argument winds blow.”
– Robin Hanson
„Most people become uninsurable at some point in their lives. It therefore makes sense to find out how affordable it can be to fund your (cryonic) suspension with the incredible financial leverage that only life insurance provides. It the case of cryonicists, the policy can truly become LIFE insurance—not DEATH insurance.”
– Rudi Hoffman
at 8 expected current lives saved per dollar donated
Even though there is a large margin of error this is at least 1500 times more effective than the best death-averting charities according to GiveWell. There’s is a side note though that while normal charities are incrementally beneficial SIAI has (roughly speaking) only two possible modes, a total failure mode and a total win mode. Still, expected utility is expected utility. A paltry 150 dollars to save as many lives as Schindler… It’s a shame warm fuzzies scale up so badly...
But, I think, you’d better be vocal, visible and brash to some extent or you risk science advancing by funerals. If someone believes that replacing status quo beliefs with a correct contratrian belief is very important then IMO her optimal strategy will be somewhere between total crackpotness and total passivity.
You display a pessimism much greater than I think is warranted. My predictions for some of your statements:
Next decade:
One or more countries will drop out of the Euro or the entire system will collapse (5%).
A US state will secede (3%).
Developed countries’ welfare states will begin to collapse (state retirement and unemployment benefits and health care will be severely curtailed or eliminated in more than one developed country) (10%).
Next year:
One or more developed countries will see significant civil unrest due to ongoing problems with the economy (5-20%, depending on how we define a significant unrest).
Holiday retail sales will be below consensus forecasts leading to some market turmoil in the early part of the year as the ‘recovery’ starts to look shaky (30%).
A developed country will suffer a currency crisis—most likely either the UK, US or one of the weaker Eurozone economies (15%).
A new round of bank failures and financial turmoil as the wave of Option ARM mortgage resets starts to hit and commercial real estate collapses including at least one major bank failure (a ‘too big to fail’ bank) (15%).
A major terrorist attack in the US (20%) most likely with a connection to Pakistan. The response will be disproportionate to the magnitude of the attack (99%).
Well, I’m certainly one, having found OB/LW through the Immortality Institute forums, where I’ve been researching health topics obsessively for several months. My vague personal impression is that life extension enthusiasts are not especially prevalent here.
Melatonin is best for sleep quality improvement with people who are above 40 as endogenous melatonin production usually starts to decrease from 30. You’re much younger than that, so sleep disturbances are less likely to be caused by low night melatonin levels (so supplementary melatonin is less likely to be a significant remedy).
Given these two things. what exactly is the SIAI going to be funding?
I’ve learned to type very fast with my non-dominant hand (through online gaming) and never experienced such effect.