This seems worth a new post!
knite
Karma: 201
That being said, as I am an offensive person and wear that mantle publicly and without shame consider this your invitation to leave. You are responsible for what you choose to engage with. I am not responsible for your feelings and reactions. If you choose to stay then that’s on you.
Sorry bud, this is my post, so consider this your invitation to leave.
Anyone with half a brain can see what a disaster that would be
This is rather rude.
Yup!
“All gatherings with members of other households are prohibited in the Region except as expressly permitted herein.”
“Nothing in this Order prevents any number of persons from the same household from leaving their residence, lodging, or temporary accommodation, as long as they do not engage in any interaction with (or otherwise gather with) any number of persons from any other household, except as specifically permitted herein.”
As far as I can see, the only exceptions are for “worship” and “political expression”.
Ah, you’ve made me realize that I haven’t thought through the variability between cities and states. As someone living in California, I currently cannot: eat in restaurants (indoors or outdoors), go to bars (ditto), gather in groups outside my “household”, or get my hair cut.
[Question] Where are the post-COVID complainers?
I just watched this last night and planned to share it here as well!
Fantastic explanation of Bayesian reasoning. I was already well-familiar (or so I thought) familiar with the concepts, but this video helped firm things up!
So level 4 is...intention masking the absence of identity?
Then level 5 is nonsense words, masking the absence of intention.
For levels 6 and higher, please see [Cuil Theory](http://cuiltheory.wikidot.com/what-is-cuil-theory).
I’m interested in this and would also love to chat!
Two securities (symbols to come later as this is still being actively traded)
Are you trading at a scale where this is relevant? The vast majority of symbols have volumes where a mere mortal’s bank account won’t move the market at all.
Great post overall! There seems to be a lot of recent interest on LW around playing the markets well. I’d love to set up a Discord for ongoing discussion and brainstorming, if there’s interest.
I’ve been sitting on a good nugget of crypto earnings for years and have had a lot of analysis paralysis about diversifying into the real markets and/or arbitraging the highly volatile crypto options/futures markets directly. If anyone reading this is interested in a serious discussion, please reach out!
Option 3: You have insufficient shared understanding/facts/terminology to comprehend each other’s opinions and even begin having a real conversation.
As a holder of other crypto (primarily BTC), how interesting is this opportunity relative to riding current growth?
What were (or are now) the best places for US persons interested in betting significant crypto sums?
Would love to hear more about your specific bets, as well as your “multiple six figure wins” friends! Personally, after maxing several PredictIt markets for a total of low thousands bet, I didn’t feel like there was a good market place to bet larger size (tens of thousands USD or higher in crypto).
Entry fees count as “losses”.
Thanks for the link, it looks like you’re right about being taxed on the $100/98.50/93.57. However, the initial $85 can be deducted from your taxable income (if less than your winnings).
So if you’re in, let’s say the 25% tax bracket, you have saved 25% * $85 = $21.25 in taxes, and have still made money on your bet. This becomes a bit murkier when considering standard deductions vs itemizing. Perhaps a more experienced bettor can chime in to step through the implications?
I am not a tax professional and have not yet filed taxes for my PredictIt gains. With that said, I am assuming that taxable gains are $93.57 - $85 = $8.75, not the $100 withdrawn.
Ongoing free money at PredictIt
I can confirm that this arbitrage opportunity exists and works as described. At the time of this writing, the sum of all Nos for the EC market is $14.70, and running the loop up to 850 shares turned $1000 into $1078. Depending on which contract actually resolves Yes, there’s an additional payout of a few bucks.
The way PredictIt calculates risk and payouts for multi-contract markets seems very confusing and is making my head hurt a bit. My Max Payout for the market is $850, but I have no idea how this number was calculated, and it doesn’t make any sense—my understanding is that the real max payout is the largest potential payout across the market’s contracts, which is a much smaller $13.
If anyone can explain how these multi-contract markets actually work, I’m all ears!
I agree! I would happily support these updates on Patreon, if that were an option. I understand that from Zvi’s perspective that could be problematic for any number of reasons, including possibly reducing motivation.
Zvi—since “money is not in any way the reason I write these posts”, how about favorite charities?