A bit gloomy as only global catastrophe or delayed catastrophe.
I thought we had 40 years but with Elon Musk talking about 7-8 years for an AGI and with the recent 4 hour training to get to [world chess supremacy][chess] I am not so sure. So I think we need to buy some time. Even if you can’t destroy the semiconductor fabs you could still increase taxes. this could be marketed as helping to pay for societies dislocation while we undergo job losses.
I really like your map as it starts to give me a framework for dealing with the whole issue. The percentages of success are depressing low.
Under 0 Preliminary measures you don’t put your personal estimate of % chance of success. You also put in destruction of AI labs. Is not destruction/taxation of semiconductor fabs an easier target (Wikipedia has a list)? I think they are also so expensive they are harder to hide.
ps spelling error desireble → desirable in bottom right yellow legend. and Prelimnary=> preliminary
Thank you for that reference. I hadn’t seen a quantification of the Bitcoin computer capacity which was interesting and high.