In the recent No Priors podcast episode with Noam Brown, they discuss Noam’s opinions on RSI (starting around 20:59). Noam voices the opinion that he does not believe that we’re moving towards an intelligence explosion anytime soon.
At 25:58 he says:
I think there is this hypothesis that you could have basically an overnight intelligence explosion where the models discover some breakthrough to make themselves smarter, and then that leads to more breakthroughs that make themselves even smarter immediately, and you have basically in an instance the models becoming very superhuman across the board in moments. I don’t think we’re headed to that world, largely because the models rely so much on large-scale test-time compute to achieve their greatest intelligence. If it requires so much test-time compute to unlock the full capabilities of the model, then you’re bottlenecked by time — things can only go so fast because the models need to run for long enough to actually do something really powerful.
This is a useful extra datapoint which shows that many leading researchers at the frontier labs don’t actually believe in the intelligence explosion framing of RSI. We are starting to see many examples of researchers from frontier labs voicing this opinion from Google and OpenAI, but notably less so from Anthropic.
These recent papers are also relevant:
“Silent Failures in Quantized LLM Reasoning: A Taxonomy-Based Analysis of Hollow Convergence and Failure Mode Shifts” https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.09999
“Quantization Inflates Reasoning: Token Inflation as a Hidden Cost of Low-Bit Reasoning Models” https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25519