I don’t know. I guess it depends on how much the people who want to make ASI want one, or the other, to happen.
How do you quantify the word “mattering”, as it relates to the causes I outlined?
Do you think that other languages and other cultures have certain insights that can’t just be extracted out of a community with a 3-6 month Kled UA campaign?
How do you reconcile the implicit moral hazard (or asymmetric levels of accountability) of miscalculating those estimates? In other words, if you’re wrong that it takes longer to get to ASI than it takes to increase TAM in the ways I described, what will you lose?
Yeah, I’d agree that the mental frames I invoke are irrelevant when time preference is high. But that suggests there’s a hidden primary crux:
Corporate interests take precedent over research goals like ‘alignment’ or ‘safety’
Would you agree that that’s a crux affecting frontier lab CEOs’ time preferences?
To the point about Grab vs frontier labs, Grab presumably has a lower time preference than frontier labs. They don’t need trillions of dollars ASAP, so they can afford to wait until exogenous factors make it easier to support emerging cities in ASEAN, no?