For the sake of clarity, my criticism of Josh’s book was developed within the context of Josh promoting his book in a LW thread titled “The Best Textbooks on Every Subject.”
Duke
Memory, Spaced Repetition and Life
ANKI flashcard deck: Cognitive Biases and Related Terms
After some deliberation, I’ve decided to withdraw this request. I am content with my submission. I am also content not to receive the prize or any portion thereof.
Judging both from experience and after reading the original comments for this post, it seems that many people share the misconception that betting—be it on ideas or sports, etc—is always done at odds of 1:1, ie I bet $100 that my prediction y will occur by date z and if i am wrong I lose $100 and if I am right I win $100 (plus my original wager). In fact, astute gambling is about predicting the likelihood of an event and then finding someone to bet with whom you think has done a worse job than you at predicting the likelihood of the event.
For instance, when I watch golf and a player has a long and difficult putt, I frequently hear the commentators say “I wouldn’t bet on this putt going in.” If betting was restricted to wagers at 1 to 1 odds then they would be correct not to bet on the putt dropping, as it is less than 50% likely that it will. But what if I gave the commentator 1000 to 1 odds on the putt going in—would they take that bet? They should. Similarly, I wouldn’t place a bet at 1 to 1 odds that there will be superhuman intelligence by the end of the year. But I’d certainly place this bet if someone would give me 100000 to 1 odds, and I’d consider placing this bet at much lower odds.
On a related note, if you ever see or hear someone make an outrageous prediction of certainty which they are willing to bet on, you are making a mistake by wagering with them at 1 to 1 odds on their prediction. You are allowing them to place a bet where they break even if their prediction is only 50% likely to occur, yet they are claiming 100% likelihood. You should push them to give you better on odds on the bet—as good as you can get from them since theoretically they should think they will never lose this bet. But be careful pushing too hard because the mark will realize that they aren’t actually certain about their prediction.
I’m not asking for a Rationalist of the Month Award, just a measly upvote.
I think the title—and especially the subtitle, ” Mastering the Art of Business,”—signals that the book will be a thorough examination of business principles. As well, I think that hocking your book in a thread called “The Best Textbooks on Every Subject” signals that the book will be, at least, textbook-like in range, complexity and information containment. You now call your book “not densely written or overly technical.” I call it cotton candy.
I agree with all of this. Maybe it doesn’t come across clearly in my post, but I tried to differentiate between rank trivia and applicable knowledge, such as cognitive biases, decision theory concepts, logical fallacies, stuff you listed, etc. I don’t know what exactly differentiates applicable knowledge with near-worthless trivia, however.
What is the status of this contest? Has there been another submission since mine? If not, then I would like my submission re-considered.
If, in fact, the spirit of the contest was to accomplish something, then, in retrospect, the value of my submission should have increased. I knocked out the article in a matter of days (here we are now, many weeks later) and it received a net of 14 upvotes. It may not have met the initial standards of the judges, but in light of new evidence—specifically, that there has been zero submission since—I think my accomplishment deserves renewed consideration.
This book, or, to be accurate, the 20 or so pages I read, are terrible. For someone who prefers dense and thorough examinations of topics, The Personal MBA is cotton candy. It is viscerally pleasing, but it offers little to no sustenance. My advice: don’t get an MBA or read this book.
The mistake I made was considering the author’s appearance in this thread as strong evidence that his book would offer value to a rationalist. In fact, the author is a really good marketer whose book has little value to offer. Congratulations to him, however, since he got me to buy a brand-new copy of a book, something I rarely do.
I think it is unfair of you to post a public critique of my submission since this is a contest. I have effectively been penalized for being first. Every submission that follows will have the benefit of seeing this critique.
I am also concerned that you have decided to change the contest format immediately following my submission. In my estimation, you had either already decided to change the format prior to my submission (clearly a major disadvantage to me), or you decided to change the format based on my submission, which, again, effectively penalizes me for being first.
- 11 Jun 2011 21:45 UTC; 0 points) 's comment on [prize] Spaced Repetition literature review by (
Why do you care if it is done to your satisfaction when the prize is awarded based on other’s satisfaction with it?
This is an expected value problem. Decide how much a unit of your time is worth, how much time you are willing to invest and then (the hard part) estimate your likelihood for success.
So, if you value your time at $10/hr, are willing to invest 10 hours and estimate you will win the $155 X% of the time then we get this equation:
P(winning)$amount won—P(losing)$amount not won = initial investment
x$155 - (1-x)$0 = $10/hr * 10 hours
solve for x
x = 64.5%, in other words, to “break even” you need to be sure that if you invest 10 hours of your time in this project that you will win it at least 64.5% of the time.
A race may not be the best way to run this for you, since I suspect that you value your time a high rate relative to the potential payoff. But someone who values their time less (or is more productive than you per unit time) may think a race is a wonderful idea.
Las Vegas LW Meetup!
Can anyone recommend a book on marketing analytics? Preferably not a textbook but I’ll take what I can get.
I have a technical background but I recently switched careers and am now working as a real estate agent. I have very limited marketing knowledge at this point.
Your can start by reading the Tim Ferriss’ The 4-hour Workweek book, by the way.
Keep in mind that Tim Ferriss works extremely hard. You are not as successful and prolific as he is on a 4-hour workweek. Ironically enough.
I tend to treat anger and frustration as resulting from my map not matching the terrain somewhere. I suspect that your frustration is rooted in inaccurate mapping concerning the prior commitment that prevented you from meeting Patri. My guess is that you correctly assumed that there would be a small chance that something “better” than your commitment would pop-up that you would have to miss; but, you failed to properly assess the emotional impact this unlikely scenario would have on you. Now you can update your priors, do some re-mapping and be better prepared emotionally to deal with low-probability/high-annoyingness events.
Also, how similar is the present Patri-hysteria in Finland to the Beatles-hysteria in the 60′s?
What is the gender of gothgirl420666?
I request arbitration and that it be done publicly.
My entry has been submitted: http://lesswrong.com/lw/64k/memory_spaced_repetition_and_life/
While I would be interested in contributing to someone’s independent research, a vague post on LW doesn’t come anywhere close to meeting my minimum threshold for confidence to do such a thing. I would recommend that you continue working and spend your free time writing a paper or an intricate analysis or something else to inspire confidence in your potential to contribute significantly to the singularity/AI body of knowledge. Otherwise, why shouldn’t I just donate my money to SIAI?