Some humans attempt to self-modify their core desires for instrumental reasons, but if given enough intelligence and resources they likely wouldn’t persist in having this meta-desire.
I think this is overly optimistic. Some people clearly have a core desire for succeeding for the sake of succeeding, and it may cause this self-modification meta-desire to persist.
I am frankly unconvinced that 75% is something worth celebrating.
Full offense to Health Canada: this is a terrible graphic, because if you don’t look at it carefully you will think that the provinces in dark blue have approximately the same number of cases, and this is very false.
Yeah, who even does that?
I am both experienced enough in text-based RP and have interacted with Character.AI enough to confidently assert that LLMs are not categorically different in their output from a poor-memory RPer, despite sometimes clearly different underlying patterns.
If the LLM text contains surprising stuff, and you DID thoroughly investigate for yourself, then you obviously can write something much better and more interesting.
This is false. Dressing up text to be readable is a separate skill not everyone has.
The problem raises an important problem. Though I have to admit my gut reaction is “neurotypicals are being weird again” :)
Damn. And I tried the strategy “what if I try to predict it only off the text, without looking at csv” :D
Why DEX though? Like, conceptually it’s absolutely unpredictable, this is one of the most useful scores in most TTRPGs.
Yeah, there seems to be a lot of personal preference involved. Removing cell borders is obnoxious and inconvenient, the table below hurts. The table above has the borders a tad too thick, but removing them is a cure that’s, personally, worse than the disease.
In real life, Reality goes off and does something else instead, and the Future does not look in that much detail like the futurists predicted
Half-joking—unless the futurist in question is Gerbert Wells. I think there was a quote that showed that he effectively predicted pixelization of early images along with many similar small-level details of early XXI century (although, of course, survivor bias for details probably influences my memory and the retelling I rely on).
Independently,
(in principle it could be figured out by human neuroscientists working without AI, but it’s a bit late for that now)
What? Why? There is no AI as of now, LLMs definitely do not count. I think it is still quite possible that neuroscience will make its breakthrough on its own, without any non-human mind help (again, dressing up the final article doesn’t count, we’re talking about the general insights and analysis here).
To begin with, there is a level of abstraction at which the minds of all four of you are the same, yet different from various nonhuman minds.
I am actually not even sure about that. Your “identify the standard cognitive architecture of this entity’s species” presupposes existence thereof—in a sufficiently specified way to then build its utopia and to derive that identification correctly in all four cases.
But, more importantly, I would say that this algorithm does not derive my CEV in any useful sense.
I like this text but I find your take on Fermi paradox wholly unrealistic.
Let’s even assume, for the sake of the argument, that both P(life) and P(sapience|life) are bigger than 1/googol (though why?) so your hunch on how many planets originally evolve sapient aliens is broadly correct. A very substantial part of alternative histories of the last century (I wanted to say “most” but most, of course, is uninteresting differences such as whether a random human puts a right shoe or a left shoe on first) result in humanity dead or thrown into possibly-irrecoverable barbarism. The default take for aliens that have evolved is to fail their version of Berlin crisis, or Caribbean crisis, or whatever other near-total-destruction situation we’ve had even without AI (not necessarily with nuclear weapons, mind you—say, what if instead of pretty-harmless-in-comparison COVID we got a sterilizing virus on the loose that kills genitalia instead of osmotic nerves? Since its method of proliferation does not depend on the host’s ability to procreate, you could imagine sterilized population of the planet). And then you tack on the fact that you also predict very high chance of AGI ruin; so most of the hypothetical aliens that survived the kind of hurdles humanity somehow survived (again, with possibly totally different specifics) are replaced by misaligned AGI, throwing a huge hurdle into the cosmopolitan result you predict—meeting paperclip-maximiser built by ant-people is more likely than meeting ant-people themselves, given your background beliefs.
Banning gain-of-function research would be a mistake. What would be recklessly foolish is incentivising governments to decide what avenues of research are recklessly foolish. The fact that governments haven’t prohibited it in a panic bout (not even China that otherwise did a lot of panicky things) is a good testament of their abilities, not an inability to react to warning shots.
The expected value of that is infinitesimal, both in general and for x-risk reduction in particular. People who prefer political reasoning (so, the supermajority) will not trust it, people who don’t think COVID was an important thing except in how people reacted to it (like me) won’t care, and most people who both find COVID important (or sign of anything important) and actually prefer logical reasoning have already given it a lot of thought and found out that the bottleneck is data that China will not release anyone soon.
I think the concept that all peoples throughout history would come into near agreement about what is good if they just reflected on it long enough is unrealistic.
Yes. Exactly. You don’t even need to go through time, place and culture on modern-day Earth are sufficient. While I cannot know my CEV (for if I knew, I would be there already), I predict with high confidence that my CEV, my wife’s CEV, Biden’s CEV and Putin’s CEV are four quite different CEVs, even if they all include as a consequence “the planet existing as long as the CEV’s bearer and the beings the CEV’s bearer cares about are on it”.
And in part because it’s socially hard to believe, as a regulator, that you should keep telling everyone “no”, or that almost everything on offer is radically insufficient, when you yourself don’t concretely know what insights and theoretical understanding we’re missing.
That’s not true. We can end up with a regulator that stands in the pose of “prohibit everything”. See IRB in America, for instance: medical experiments are made plainly insurmountable.
I think at this point we should just ask @johnswentworth which one of us understood him correctly. As far as I see, we measure a distance between vectors, not between individual parameters, and that’s why this thing fails.
Erm, I think you’re getting mixed up between comparing parameters and comparing the results of applying some function to parameters. These are not the same, and it’s the latter that become incomparable.
(Also, would your algorithm derive that ln(4+3i)=ln(5) since |4+3i|=|5|? I really don’t expect the “since we measure distances” trick to work, but if it does work, it should also work on this example.)
Eh. In any active theoretical field, there is lots of confusion and disagreement (otherwise there just isn’t a field). It does not actually follow that you, as someone within that field, are wrong, even in Bayesian sense it is a rather weak update.