Thank you!
Your comment really shone light into things that were cloudy, it’s a great help :-)
devas
Karma: 163
[Question] Are there any prediction markets for Covid-19?
On Emotional Responsibility & Abuse
I might actually write such a post, but I see it as being more...parallel to this concept? Aimed in the same direction at least.
And the reason I wrote this is because it’s my gut instinct that people starting out in a new field or job are more likely to suffer from underconfidence than overconfidence, which steals their time and resources.
Reading these comments, it seems obvious to me now that I should have framed it more in terms of who it was primarily addressed to; aside from the fact that this is advice I wish I’d heard some years in the past.
Edited to be more in line with what you said; edit was late because edit function doesn’t seem to work on mobile.
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Thank you for pointing out my mistake! You’re right that that definition is precious. I’d only absorbed it in its already mutated version because my brain autocompleted it that way. Gonna think about this a bit.
Self-confidence as a time saving tactic
This is a topic I am very interested in and would like to see explored in depth, but the huge wall of text at the beginning (and in other parts) meant I couldn’t read this article.
Please chop this into paragraphs.
You have been revived.
At first, everything seems pretty swell: people from all over come to talk to you, you’ve been tapped to reconstruct some languages and customs from your failing memory, etc. etc. Wonder why they have mirrors everywhere, though.
Then you ask to access your bank account, and they laugh in your face.
You don’t have rights, you disgusting monster.
You’re part of the cretinous, self-indulgent generation who nearly ruined our planet, and whose crimes and demeanor are so horrible we can’t even contemplate them.
You’ve already been judged [i]in absentia[/i], and the only reason, the only reason at all you’re here, is to help us understand how not to be like you.
You look at the mirrors, and you realize they’re two-way.
You’re in a zoo. You’re never getting out. You don’t even know what “out” is like, and you never will.
Good point. I’m going to make another, different post detailing the horrifying yet somewhat plausible idea your comment gave me which “fixes” that oversight.
In the meantime, there’s this: you’re assuming that in the future, you’ll have rights, and agency.
I thought of the premise, decided to expand on it and comment, and then I read this comment.
So...huhh...I’m stealing this? I guess? From the future?
You are one of the first to be revived.
The technique is imperfect, and causes you massive neurological damage (think late stage Alzheimer’s), trapping you in a nonverbal yet incredibly painful and horrifying state.
Due to advances in gerontology, you have a nearly infinite lifespan ahead of you, cognizant only of what you have lost.
When neuroscience finally advances to the point where you can be fixed, it’s still not yet advanced enough to give you back your memories.
You’re effectively a completely different person, and you know that.
Cut doctors pay and hire more?
This seems to me like an instinctually bad idea, although I wouldn’t be able to tell you why.
Aside from that, the first thing that comes to mind would be to create an incentive for doing surgeries quickly—the surgeon who’s average waiting time is lowest gets a bonus—but that would have very bad, not good, horrible side effects.
Create specialised sub-professions without the comprehensive training costs?
This has, I think, the highest potential. One would need to fight against entrenched lobbies and status quo bias, but in theory it would help a lot.
Alternatively, a possibility could be creating a specialized administrative role in hospitals whose sole purpose is to organize doctor’s time...but I would be surprised if it didn’t already exist.
2) a) I check the ticket, assuming I have nothing better to do and that I remember it. To be more precise, if there is a family emergency and I have to drive to the hospital for whatever reason, I will not go out of my way to jury-rig an internet connection and I won’t look for the ticket before going out. I check the ticket because even a one in a million chance of free money is still free money. b)I am not very confident; I’m not sure, but a grossly inaccurate measure of how confident I would be is that I’d think there is a 1⁄10 chance of me having won. Other alternative hypotheses are the lottery site being a phishing trap, the site being nothing more than advertisement, additional requirements which would make the collection of the prize impossible (you need the lottery ticket, the receipt, it must be collected yesterday and it can only be deposited in the Monte dei Paschi di Siena). c)Between collecting the prize and seeing the bank confirm the deposit, depending on what other additional information I’ve seen (skeeviness of the lottery operators, state of the office where I collected the prize, and so on).
What automatic tracker did you use? I would like to find out how I`m spending my own time online as well
Good point, I hadn’t thought of that.
Depends on whether you consider “being able to comprehensively understand questions that may be misleading” to be a subset of calibration skills.
I think the computer games question has to do with tribal identity-people who love a particularly well known game might be more inclined to list it as being the best seller ever and put down higher confidence because they love it so much.
Kind of like owners of Playstations and Xboxs will debate the superiority of their technical specs regardless of whether they’re superior or not.
Physically? Maybe. information-wise? I heavily doubt it.
If the map is bigger than the territory, why not go live in the map? :-/
The map is smaller than the territory? I think?
What is Nvc? Google fails me :-\