I’ve been thinking of doing more things like this, however, I wonder about this part:
P(E | H1) = 0.2 (if 150g is enough, poor recovery is unlikely)
P(E | H2) = 0.7 (if 170g is needed, poor recovery is likely if you only ate 150g)
Any reason why these particular conditional probabilities are chosen here -- 0.2 and 0.7?
Would there be any principled way to update these probabilities while new evidence rolls in, and maybe even start both from 0.5? I think for simple observation our set of formulae might be under-constrained, so maybe we’d need to incorporate other stream of evidence to constrain it enough?
You might find this concept helpful to look into as have I: Pervasive Drive for Autonomy.