Craig Fratrik

Karma: 35

Craig Fratrik 19 Apr 2025 13:20 UTC
3 points
0
on: British and American Connotations
https://g.co/gemini/share/4c0707081d5d Gemini 2.5 Pro understood the gist and provided some examples that are more well known.
In the one-shot, produced only one intriguing miscommunication,
Conversation 3: After the Party
* American: “Man, I was so pissed last night when I realized I left my wallet at the restaurant.” (Meaning: Very angry/annoyed.)
* Brit: “Really? You seemed fine when you left! How much did you have to drink to get that pissed?” (Meaning: Very drunk.)

Craig Fratrik 20 Jan 2022 19:24 UTC
2 points
0
on: Covid 1/20/22: Peak Omicron
Some googling did not yield a source for “Had his family issue threats of at least symbolic physical violence”. Can you provide a link?

The closest I got was this:

“I have no idea what’s going on, they’re holding my son captive for five hours,” Srdan told local Serbian radio station B92. “This is a fight for the libertarian world, this is not just a fight for Novak, but a fight for the whole world! “If they don’t let him go in half an hour, we will gather on the street, this is a fight for everyone.”

https://www.sportbible.com/australia/tennis-novak-djokovics-dad-issues-threat-to-australia-20220105

If that is all there is, I don’t think it is accurately described as “Had his family issue threats of at least symbolic physical violence.”

And if someone is feeling in the mood, is there a link for 6 as well? 5 minutes of googling yielded irresponsible behavior around his claimed positive test, but nothing about the french open.

Craig Fratrik 20 Jan 2022 18:58 UTC
3 points
0
on: Covid 1/20/22: Peak Omicron
The metaphor discussion reminded me of Cat Coupling[1], “where it’s unclear whether an attribute is meant as justifiably picking out a subset, or unjustifiably describing the whole, and as a result strengthening the connection between the concept and the attribute.” E.g. “the only ones that will lose out are rich bosses”: are all bosses rich, or will the non-rich bosses excluded? Nerst argues that such a phrase leverages the ambiguity to be more powerful.

Another way the metaphor struggles is that usually we don’t disagree if it’s raining. In November, was a supermarket a high risk setting?

I would say mocking the wet people isn’t the problem. The externality of infection, mean that the pro-umbrella crowd believe they are being made wet by the non-umbrella crowd.

So the two problems with the metaphor:
1. The degree of rain coming down is agreed upon, community risk is not.
2. Pro-maskers view your choice not use an umbrella as getting them wet. (And as Zvi says, in some times and places, they are not wrong.)
[1] https://everythingstudies.com/2019/10/30/cat-couplings/

Craig Fratrik 7 Jan 2022 17:09 UTC
1 point
0
on: Covid 1/6/22: The Blip
Small typo:

NYC Testing cites → sites

Craig Fratrik 2 Dec 2021 19:49 UTC
8 points
0
on: Covid 12/2: But Aside From That

I do realize this is not a practical solution for ‘the public,’ it’s too complicated on several levels, but it’s not too complicated for you if you are reading this and worried about maintaining protection and also worried about the cost of continuous booster shots.

Is there a feasible way for me to measure my antibody level?

Craig Fratrik 18 Nov 2021 17:28 UTC
6 points
0
on: Covid 11/18: Paxlovid Remains Illegal
Couldn’t see the substack version:

This page is private—try logging in with a different email, or letting the author know they’ve linked to a private page.

Both logged in and incognito.

Craig Fratrik 26 Aug 2021 18:50 UTC
1 point
0
on: Covid 8/26: Full Vaccine Approval
typo: An argument against weaning masks on the margin, and

should be

An argument against wearing

Craig Fratrik 20 Aug 2021 15:07 UTC
3 points
0
on: Covid 8/19: Cracking the Booster
Typo:

“after testing negative every day or quite a while. Daily testing is an interesting idea.”

should be

after testing negative every day for

Craig Fratrik 5 Aug 2021 16:11 UTC
11 points
0
on: Covid 8/5: Much Ado About Nothing
NIH Director Francis Collins claimed he misspoke, and tweeted to clarify.

Let me clarify the masking message that I garbled on @NewDay this morning. Vaccinated parents who live in communities with high COVID transmission rates should mask when out in public indoor settings to minimize risks to their unvaccinated kids. No need to mask at home.

https://twitter.com/NIHDirector/status/1422654529087189000

Not sure how to feel about the poor communication, but propagating the followup, I think.

Craig Fratrik 7 Feb 2021 16:54 UTC
1 point
0
on: Bring Back Free-Flow Valves
What type of pump do you use?

I was having trouble getting an extension on my bike pump that would work.

I started thinking about how how 3d-print something that would reach in and make it free flow.* Perhaps such a device would help your issue.
- Step 1: Learn how to do 3d-printing

Craig Fratrik 7 Jan 2021 17:54 UTC
4 points
0
on: Covid 1/7: The Fire of a Thousand Suns
You might want to add Ireland to your Europe graph. It is now higher than UK and much steeper. Portugal is also running parallel to UK since Dec 28 (in log levels).

Actually in general, how do you decide who is in vs out? Netherlands and Denmark are still on the decline.

Craig Fratrik 29 Dec 2020 20:14 UTC
1 point
0
on: Adapting to Means Testing
Every means tested program also adds to the implicit marginal tax rate. If benefits phase out as you earn more, it is as if you are being taxed at a higher rate.

Here are some more details from 2009, I’m not sure about the situation now. And it’s hard to analyze nationally, because it depends on state and local programs as well.

Craig Fratrik 29 Dec 2020 16:51 UTC
1 point
0
on: Covid 12/24: We’re F***ed, It’s Over
You highlight the growth in UK cases, so I tried to make a rudimentary way of tracking such growth in other, affected countries.
https://cov-lineages.org/global_report.html—https://archive.is/Tq5cb—Keeps track of which countries have tested positive. ( https://twitter.com/AineToole posts when new reports come out)
OurWorldInData of said countries (dropping Australia): https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?yScale=log&zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-09-17..latest&country=GBR~PRT~ITA~DNK~IRL~ISR~NLD~NOR~FRA~ESP&region=World&casesMetric=true&interval=smoothed&perCapita=true&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=new_cases_per_million&pickerSort=desc
Findings
- Ireland seems to be on a steeper path than UK, although they are starting from a much better position.
- Israel is as steep, but predates the UK, so presumably from other reasons.
- The new variant doesn’t seem to show up in the others yet.

Craig Fratrik 28 Dec 2020 2:13 UTC
4 points
0
on: What trade should we make if we’re all getting the new COVID strain?
Another idea, long an Israeli ETF (ITEQ) and short either the world or Europe, (VTI or VGK). They seem to be the only country on pace to immunize enough people before the wave hits.