Predictor: The primary AI tasked with protecting the diamond. The predictor sees a video feed of the vault, predicts what actions are necessary to protect the diamond and how those actions will play out (for example, activating a trap door to eliminate a robber trying to steal the diamond), and then generates a video showing precisely what will happen.
I’d like to try making a correction here, though I might make some mistakes too.
The predictor is different from the AI that protects the diamond and doesn’t try to “choose” actions in order to accomplish any particular goal. Rather, it takes a starting video and a set of actions as input, then returns a prediction of what the ending video would be if those actions were carried out.
An agent could use this predictor to choose a set of actions that leads to videos that a human approves of, then carry out these plans. It could use some kind of search policy, like Monte-Carlo Tree Search, or even just enumerate through every possible action and figure out which one seems to be the best. For the purposes of this problem, we don’t really care; we just care that we have a predictor that uses some model of the world (which might take the form of a Bayes net) to guess what the output video will be. Then, the reporter can use the model to answer any questions asked by the human.
I was talking about ELK in a group, and the working example of the SmartVault and the robber ended up being a point of confusion for us. Intuitively, it seems like the robber is an external, adversarial agent who tries to get around the SmartVault. However, what we probably care about in practice would be how a human could be fooled by an AI—not by some other adversary. Furthermore, it seems that whether the robber decides to cover up his theft of the diamond by putting up a screen depends solely on the actions of the AI. Does this imply that the robber is “in kahoots” with the AI in this situation (i.e. the AI projects a video onto the wall instructing the robber to put up a screen)? This seems a bit strange and complicated.
Instead, we might consider the situation in which the AI controls a SmartFabricator, which we want to arrange carbon atoms into diamonds. We might then imagine that it instead fabricates a screen to put in front of the camera, or makes a fake diamond. This wouldn’t require the existence of an external “robber” agent. Does the SmartVault scenario have helpful aspects that the SmartFabricator example lacks?