brendanhalstead

Karma: 1,039

Q2.5 2026 Timelines Update: Uplift and Revenue

brendanhalstead, Daniel Kokotajlo and elifland

16 Aug 2026 19:00 UTC

66 points

19 comments11 min readLW link

(blog.aifutures.org)

How to pace the US frontier

elifland, brendanhalstead, romeo, Thomas Larsen and MKodama

7 Aug 2026 17:19 UTC

94 points

1 comment21 min readLW link

(blog.aifutures.org)

AI 2040: Plan A

Daniel Kokotajlo, elifland, Thomas Larsen, romeo, brendanhalstead and ryan_greenblatt

9 Jul 2026 16:25 UTC

551 points

131 comments1 min readLW link

(www.ai-2040.com)

How much slower does takeoff go with 10× less compute?

brendanhalstead8 Jul 2026 10:04 UTC

46 points

4 comments4 min readLW link

Q1 2026 Timelines Update

Daniel Kokotajlo, elifland and brendanhalstead

2 Apr 2026 22:23 UTC

91 points

19 comments2 min readLW link

(open.substack.com)

Clarifying how our AI timelines forecasts have changed since AI 2027

elifland, Daniel Kokotajlo and brendanhalstead

27 Jan 2026 22:58 UTC

70 points

12 comments6 min readLW link

(blog.ai-futures.org)

AI Futures Timelines and Takeoff Model: Dec 2025 Update

elifland, brendanhalstead, Alex Kastner and Daniel Kokotajlo

31 Dec 2025 22:34 UTC

149 points

34 comments25 min readLW link