belkarx0 AT outlook.com
belkarx
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Not sure if that was a continuation of the satire, but the question interested me so in case anyone else wants to know, here’s an article on the origins of that myth: https://www.animal-dynamics.com/the-bumblebee-flight-myth/
The problem is, as a business owner, how do I tell this person apart from the average 14 year old?
This is a limited and subjective answer but there are just some subtle conversational and lifestyle markers of potential (I’ve talked to a fair few “intelligent” people about this and they agree that you can just tell if someone is of their type). A more reasonable solution is to encourage cold emails along the lines of “hey, I’m taking initiative and pitching myself to you as a resource good for X, here’s what I’m interested in, here’s why there isn’t much application-wise knowledge of my interests, consider taking me as an unpaid intern”
Just because you were like that as a teenager doesn’t mean that this is common
Indeed. This may be biased by the fact that I intentionally sought out people like me (and found a fair few, many in similar situations).
Here’s a sample (prompt: Has AI gone too far? A persuasive essay for school, temperature .7):
The introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) into our lives has been met with both excitement and reservation. AI has been used to automate mundane tasks, improve medical diagnoses, and even create artwork. However, as AI continues to develop, the question of whether or not it has gone too far must be asked. The potential of AI is undeniable. It has the capability to revolutionize the way we do things and improve our lives. AI can help us make decisions faster and more accurately, allowing us to be more productive. It can also help us automate mundane tasks, allowing us to focus on more important work. AI can also be used to improve medical diagnostics, helping to detect diseases earlier and provide more efficient treatments. However, with great power comes great responsibility, and AI is no exception. AI has been used to create algorithms that can be biased and even used to manipulate people. AI has also been used to create autonomous weapons, which could potentially be used to carry out unethical acts. Additionally, AI has the potential to replace human jobs, leading to a rise in unemployment. For these reasons, it is important to consider the implications of AI before its use. We must ensure that AI is used for the betterment of humanity and not to cause harm. We must also ensure that AI is not used to replace human jobs and that it is used in a responsible and ethical manner. In conclusion, AI has the potential to revolutionize the way we do things and improve our lives. However, it is important to consider the implications of its use before it is employed.
I like the premise. I’m glad this is getting researched. But:
Lots of things in the space are understudied and the startup-vibe approach of “we’ll figure this all out on the way because previous papers don’t exist” seems way less likely to work with bio than tech because of the length of iteration cycles. But props if it does?
Black swan effects of polygenic edits
cellular stress if on a large scale?
might be an exception where pleiotropy does actually matter, which would suck. the table in another comment showing correlations between illnesses is pretty convincing however it’s possible there are effects that aren’t quantified there (doesn’t present as diagnosable disease)
???? not sufficiently enmeshed in the bio space but this entire post gives off the vibe of “most of the components are bleeding edge and there aren’t many papers, esp not large scale/long term ones” and I imagine that’ll cause more issues than you expect and streeeetch timescales
given black box bio and difficulty of studying the brain, it’s really hard to tell what’s being left out in studies that measure only change in intelligence/what other things are being affected
We have gotten nowhere near as much as we could out of behavioral interventions (on long timescales) and nootropics, and both of those seem like better areas to put research time into. I don’t actually think a research project of this scale will be faster (for AI safety research etc) than either of those.
counterpoint: this will just make it easier/lower ‘energy’ to apply interventions and is hence worthwhile?? but it’s still so risky that I maintain the above approaches are more worthwhile in the short term
Do the people who contract things out because their time is worth $n/hr or whatever actually keep track of how many “extra” hours they work on top of their basic expenses such that they know how much work they can practically expense out? Or is this a thing that people just say and don’t stop to actually think through. Very much has the vibes of a family with 300k+ takehome or whatever living paycheck to paycheck cuz they’re too good for certain things
Suggestion: If your teacher is the type to find it amusing (as opposed to threatening consequences for plagiarism or academic dishonesty), give the prompt to GPT-3 (students have free credits) and submit whatever it tells you
School in concept is a great idea. Give the new generation a base of knowledge from which to build. It is just very very poorly implemented. So, I’d say the meetings and other maintenance/organizational devices common in the programming world fall into the same class: useful in theory, essentially useless in practice.
Alternative schools exist, and they output arguably more useful individuals, however they are chosen at the will of the parent. There remain many students stuck in typical public schools, and there should be something they can independently do to help themselves.
My naive, inelegant, long-term solution requires a paradigm shift on the side of businesses and the law in taking (the risk of) on younger workers.
I would be interested in dialoguing about:
- why the “imagine AI as a psychopath” analogy for possible doom is or isn’t appropriate (I brought this up a couple months ago and someone on LW told me Eliezer argued it was bad, but I couldn’t find the source and am curious about reasons)- how to maintain meaning in life if it seems that everything you value doing is replaceable by AI (and mere pleasure doesn’t feel sustainable)
After reading LW more consistently for a couple weeks, I started recognizing rationalists in other parts of The Internet and wondered what were common social medias. My guesses are Twitter, Hacker News, StackExchange, and Quora in about that order, and I will eventually attempt to confirm this more rigorously, be it by demographic survey or username correlation (much less reliable).
For now, I was particularly interested in finding LW users that are also on Hacker News, so I quickly queried both sites and found ~25% of active LW users had Hacker News accounts (with a relatively large margin of error, due to the way I biased username selection to account for different naming conventions and given n=355). Here’s the extremely quick script in case anyone has any methodological critiques or improvements: https://gist.github.com/belkarx/33cfdda5b6c52ea45198d0bc427fa990
I’d love to see more than one data point for each career eventually. How are you scouting out professionals to interview? The idea is overall great—much easier than cold emailing people in professions that interest you and hoping someone’s willing to share their experiences/advice
Can you think of any way to fix the system without forcing everyone into an apprenticeship? The status quo in America right now is respect of the system for most because it’s easy and a clean path … hands-on learning wouldn’t appeal to all
Research on the effectivity of hypnosis as an analgesic and in general
I had been communicating with someone who had had great success and very fine control with modification, so that was a clear “this is possible” (they were much more careful though!), and I was also reflecting a lot on how people don’t explicitly take advantage of their self modifying properties enough (it is amazing that we can just … will thoughts and goals into existence and delude ourselves like what?? and the % of people that meditate is low??! the heck?).
I think my success was mostly due to just being in a frame of mind that made me very receptive to change, I think if you’re fighting it because you, at some level, believe your current equilibrium is better than what you’re aiming for (probably the case, tbh) or unaware to what extent change is possible you’d have much weaker results. Also, I had very little explicit, continuous certainty in my goals and habits, rendering them quite susceptible to change.
I wonder if having a significant other work by you so you can see each others’ screens would have a similar effect—I assume the effect is diminished because it’s a more familiar relationship, but it might work out? Has anyone tried this?
Do you know of any drawbacks to the apprenticeship system in Germany? I wonder why that isn’t more common across the world.
University has value in its connections and the confirmation that a candidate has the requisite knowledge. Many large companies auto-reject anyone without an “upper education” for these reasons, as it’s easier to apply that as a filter and miss a couple people than take the time to know everyone’s unique situations.
The article also references the subgroup of “competent but apathetic” (which I would subjectively say is common, and the main missed population, as those with perseverance and unrelenting raw passion tend to do well on their own). A lot of people don’t have the motivation for following through with “impressive projects” on top of the drain of HS, and (to use the example of programming) just internalize the concepts, create smaller utilities and projects as needed (alongside self-imposed pressure to do things for school clubs, volunteering, casual competitions, et cetera). You’re left with a young group that enjoys a subject, is relatively knowledgeable about it, but with insufficient experience, not able to apply themselves past a certain threshold of individual motivation.
Societally introduced opportunities and mentorship that is more open to the top 3-5% as opposed to the .1% that knows how to market themselves mitigates that.
side comment that I’ve been reminded of: epigenetics *exist(s?)*. I wonder if that could somehow be a more naturally integrate-able approach
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4251063/
An actually appropriate replacement for what literature should be trying to develop is debate
Doesn’t 80k hours do this?
Bad sleep schedule is another good example of something that gets romanticised when it shouldn’t.