A point about counting arguments that I have not seen made elsewhere (although I may have missed it!).
The failure of the counting argument that SGD should result in overfitting is not a valid countexample! There is a selection bias here—the only reason we are talking about SGD is *because* it is a good learning algorithm that does not overfit. It could well still be true that almost all counting arguments are true about almost all learning algorithms. The fact that SGD does generalises well is an exception *by design*.
It certainly seems like Israel is acting in a manner consistent with taking this concern seriously, seeming intent on ending Hamas’s presence in Gaza, holding a buffer zone in Syria, and weakening Hezbollah.