Seems more like a political party in form than a cult per se. Putting aside the distasteful connotations of the word politics, most political parties are (or at least were at their inception) groupings of people who agree on a set of values and a philosophy.
Most cults don’t permit the degree of participation from peripheral semi-lurkers who only fractionally accept the principles that this site does.
Anyway I voted the post down because these meta-discussions are boring.
We’re mostly computer programmers who are looking for something else to read when we should be working.
Guilty has charged. It does seem more productive than tower defense, at any rate. Ciphergoth does have a point that polite discussions about rationality are an end in their own right.
The potential information you gain from the experiment is a currency. Discount that currency (or have a low estimate of it) and yeah you can frame the experiment as a waste of resources.
Did you write a cost function down for the various debate outcomes? The skew will inform whether overconfidence or underconfidence should be weighted differently.
OK, ‘compression’ is the wrong analogy as it implies that we don’t lose any information. I’m not sure this is always a bad thing. I might have use of a particular theorem. Being the careful sort, I work through the proof. Satisfied, I add the theorem to my grab bag of tricks (yay product rule!). In a couple of weeks (hours even...) I have forgotten the details of the proof, but I have enough confidence in my own upvote of the theorem to keep using it. The details are no longer relevant unless some other evidence comes along that brings the theorem, and thus the ‘proof’ into question.
pizza is good, seafood is bad
When I say something is good or bad (“yay doggies!”) it’s usually a kind of shorthand:
pizza is good == pizza tastes good and is fun to make and share
seafood is bad == most cheap seafood is reprocessed offcuts and gave me food poisoning once
yay doggies == I find canine companions to be beneficial for my exercise routine, useful for home security and fun to play with.
I suspect when most people use the words ‘good’ and ‘bad’ they are using just this kind of linguistic compression. Or is your point that once a ‘good’ label is assigned we just increment its goodness index and forget the detailed reasoning that led us to it? Sorry, the post was an interesting read but I’m not sure what you want me to conclude.
Interesting idea: we support the underdog because if push came to shove we’d have a better chance of besting them than the top dog? There’s a similar problem I remember from a kids brainteaser book. Three hunters are fighting a duel, with rifles, to the death. Each has one bullet. The first hunter has a 100% chance of making a killing shot, the second a 50% chance, the third a 10% chance. What is the inferior hunter’s best strategy?
More part-time and/or amateur scientists would be a good thing. This is more difficult today because there are fewer projects that one person, or even a handful of people can do on their own.
The canonical examples of ‘big science’ are the humane genome project, particle physics and atmospheric prediction. All three rely on massive international investment in infrastructure, the coordinated contributions of many specialists, and research programs with very long timelines, and where progress is mostly incremental (another bug sequenced, another 0.1 improvement in anomaly correlation, another dB of evidence in favour of some micro-theory).
That’s not to say there are no problems left that a genius in a garage can’t attack, just that it seems to me they are fewer than back in Lord Kelvin’s day, and that the big problems that most of agree we want to solve require massive cooperation: the only effective system we have yet devised for this is via national science agencies.
By definition someone for whom religion or spirituality is intensely personal is going to avoid talking to you about it. The fact that that in all the conversations about religion you have ever had, no-one has declined to participate on those grounds is hardly evidence that these people don’t exist.
Hmmm, methinks you are moderately wrong about religious organisations being on the wrong side of ‘every’ moral issue in American history. You’ve heard of the Quakers—funny hats, oatmeal, social justice and all that.
I just don’t see modern secular churches (ok so maybe you don’t have those in the USA yet...) like the Anglicans as a major force for irrationality. When they bump up against science there are a few protests and then they cede ground, and explain any contradictions between scripture and reality by admitting scripture is mostly just stories.
Get them reading. Babies love being read to. Introduce them to the beauty of books, and the wonders of the public library system. Then, when they have the tools to navigate the repository of written knowledge, set them loose. Steer a little, but don’t interfere.
I find your African aid example jarring, and my back of the envelope calculations suggest it is backwards.
Many aid organisations exist that focus their spending on funding education directly, or improving educational infrastructure. Educated children are more likely to escape peasant-hood, and more likely to ensure that their own children are educated. It seems probable to me that the potential net rationality (measured in rations or some such unit) produced from small donations is positive. Assuming we want to maximize humanity’s mean rationality score, this may be an example of comparative advantage at work.
The net value of an extra $50 in my pocket on friday is negative, it will probably be spent on beer, takeaway, maybe a new game I can waste time playing. I already spent all day reading papers and writing code, the chance of me spending that $50 to level up my rationality again is negligible compared to the chance of my $50 hangover cutting into my Saturday morning research time. The net value (in rations) of posting that $50 to Plan or some such organisation to spend it providing primary school education to girls who have a non-zero probability of going on to become biotech researchers is positive.
I’d even be inclined to suggest that the value of a potential small-r rationalist in an intellecutally backward country is higher than a small time fraction of a rationalist in an educated society. You get to decide which of Africa or the States is intellectually more backward...
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A serious question deserves a serious answer so here it is, even though as a peripheral semi-lurker it’s probably not relevant to your program. My motivations for coming here are entertainment on the one hand, and trawling for insights and ideas I can use at work.
I’m a rationalist, but not a Rationalist. I cringe at the idea of a self-identified Rationalist movement or organisation in the same way I cringe at Richard Dawkin’s ‘Bright’ movement. I think there is a danger of a sort of philosophical isolationism where participants forget that rationalism and materialism are alive and well in many scientific professional societies, political organisations, educational institutions and families.
I never said no good would come from the discussion—I sincerely hope you accomplish something worthwhile.