Very valid and good point(added). I briefly touched on it before too, but mostly had individual practitioners in mind than organized hospitals with administration and support. (India is moving towards a lot more of the organized hospitals model, but IT is non-existent, administration is most seat-in-the-ass jobs)
anandjeyahar
Karma: 83
Thanks that’s clearer.. will update...
Dates changed.. See http://www.meetup.com/Bangalore-LessWrongers-Meetup/events/221944253/
Unreliable memory.. but here’s a less opinionated, and closer to original sounding one.. although the source is dodgy.
And she felt hungry. And that also made no sense. The stomach was a bag for digesting food. It wasn’t supposed to issue commands. The Auditors could survive quite well by exchanging molecules with their surroundings and making use of any local source of energy. That was a fact.
Try telling that to the stomach. She could feel it. It was sitting there, grumbling. She was being harassed by her internal organs. Why the … why the. . why had they copied internal organs? Yuerkkk.
Frome here.
I think Terry Pratchett makes this point well, in “The thief of time”. Can’t find the exact quote, but here goes my paraphrasing from memory
“Human beings make decisions by committee. The stomach has a mind of its, own and wants to put food in the mouth.
I disagree. I’m not sure it’s provable(maybe in professional poker players??), but if you’ve played the bet a lot of times, you could have come up with cues* about whether your friend has got the same roll(or number on the die) as the last time or not.
-- not sure how verbalizable or not it is .(which implies harder to teach to someone else).
OK, so “there could be cases where it is rational to update.” How would you do so?
(I can’t understand what an update could reasonably change. You aren’t going to make the probability of any particular side more than 1⁄6, so what is the new probability?)
I don’t know either. I can make up a scenario, based on a series of die throws, history of win-losses and guesses based on that, but that would simply be conjecture, and still may not produce a reasonable process. However, this discussion reminded me of a scene in HPMOR. (The scene where HP’s critic part judges that Miss Camblebunker was not a Doctor, but an actor. (After Bellatrix is broken out of prison.))
What does it mean to have uncertainty reduction taking place outside of the frame of reference of the person being asked for a decision?
You’re assuming humans are rational(as in the AI definition of a rational agent). We’re not. So this knowledge that other person knows something for sure, that we don’t know about, colours/biases one’s judgement.
I am not saying one should update their beliefs based on another person knowing or not knowing, but that we do anyway, as part of perception. I would argue, that we should be learning to notice the confusion between the rational side of us vs the perceptive side which notes (the other agent’s) confidence/lack there of. I know it is a hand-wavy explanation, but my point stands nevertheless. I agree with the OP that one shouldn’t update their beliefs on the basis of Naomi/camera having no certainty about the outcome(of coin toss). Simply say that if it is Naomi, there could be cases where it is rational to update, though hard to actually observe/be-aware of these updations and therefore, safer to not update.
Ah.… “genuine uncertainty” the term reminds me of “no true scotsman argument”. My point being, there’s an uncertainty reduction before and after the die was rolled, not to say this means, I should update my belief about the die’s rolled/winning value.
Simply put my friend Naomi’s beliefs have been updated and uncertainty in her mind has been eliminated. I think the author was trying to point out that most people conflate the two differences. It definitely is well worded for rhetoric, but not for pedagogy(in Feynman sense).
I don’t know about this idea. For most of my career, I’ve tried to be sidekick in the sense of trying to fulfill someone else’s goals with say a secondary goal of mine that ties in to that primary goal, but it has always ended up in conflicts, where I couldn’t simply bring myself to ignore the hero’s stance/decision(and still work with him/her). Is that a good enough reason to try to be a hero? This post still resonates with me, but that doesn’t mean am about to go around hero’s for whom I can be a sidekick. Majority of the empirical evidence that I’ve (personal experience) accumulated suggests, that won’t really work.
May be the distinction is not as sharp as you think/believe it is?
You are right. I was guilty of repeating from memory an oversimplified quote. The wikipedia page points out that it was misworded quote by Rudolf Clausius. Thanks for pointing out.
This is something, I find a lot of people don’t realize(by virtue of never testing their boundaries). It’s not that the universe* has become suddenly maleficient, it was indifferent / mildly maleficient(think increasing entropy rule, if you prefer), we just didn’t realize it and it’s getting harder to ignore.
*-- Edit Clarification: Universe—Humans. (- being set difference here.)
There is a good case to be made that this one remaining true “why”-question, which does not reduce to merely some one-level-lower description, is actually ill-formed and doesn’t make sense.
Am Douglas Adams on this one. 42 is the answer, we don’t know the question. Seriously, though I’ve gotten to a stage where I don’t wonder much about the one ‘why’ axiom anymore*. Thanks for the clarification though.
*-- Used to wonder some 10 years ago though.
eventually the truth/reality/answer is indifferent to the phrasing of the question (as why/how). I do think phrasing it as how makes it easier to answer(in the instrumental sense) than why. Also what is the exception, am not aware of it, please point me.
Ah.. a compiled program running on limited computing resources(memory, cpu etc..). I kinda think the metaphor assumes that implicitly. Perhaps it results in a leaky abstraction for most others(i.e: not working with computers), but i don’t really see it as a problem.
Agree ‘how’ is more accurate than why.
But, as compiler optimizations exploit increasingly recondite properties of the programming language definition, we find ourselves having to program as if the compiler were our ex-wife’s or ex-husband’s divorce lawyer, lest it introduce security bugs into our kernels, as happened with FreeBSD a couple of years back with a function erroneously annotated as noreturn, and as is happening now with bounds checks depending on signed overflow behavior.
This worked out good enough. We played the Guess the number principle game, tried the wason card test, and planned for future meetup ideas. Here’s a set of pics. https://plus.google.com/photos/110235589351841913894/albums/6084556792473790881?banner=pwa . *
-- I haven’t named/tagged anyone, but if you’re still uncomfortable with public sharing pics, let me know on the mailing list.
but it seems to be almost exactly 1, possibly slightly higher. (I am unambiguously male, which makes me wonder if my methodology is bad) Well I had a similar problem(tried to measure with tape directly next & parallel to the fingers) and instead drew the outline of my spread out palm on a sheet of paper and got 1.01.
This is also the same reason I like Alan Perlis’s quote on programming languages. Paraphrased it reads “There’s no point in learning a new language that doesn’t teach you a new way of thinking.” I equate “the new way of thinking” with maps here.
Perfect timing.. I had run into my therapist at a mutual event and had panicked.. Was wondering why? and how do I deal with similar situation in the future.. (it’s very likely to happen again, as we have quite a bit in common and are in the same city).