Amadeus Pagel

Karma: 21

Amadeus Pagel 24 Jun 2026 14:25 UTC
2 points
0
on: Contra Pace on When to Apologize
The point of saying sorry when you bump into one is not to imply a policy update, but to signal your current policy: Every time I bump into someone it makes me feel bad, therefore I’m only going to move at such a speed that I’m liable to bump into people when I really need to.

Amadeus Pagel 11 Mar 2026 14:23 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: jefftk’s comment on: Conflicted on Ramsey
Agreed. But the argument for paying off smaller debts first, isn’t that comparing interest rates is confusing, it’s that the experience of retiring debts is motivating and you want to get some wins sooner.
If you are aware of how much paying off part of a debt reduces the interest you pay every year, paying off part of a high-interest debt should be more motivating then paying off part of a low-interest debt.
I’m sure there are free spreadsheet templates where you can put in all of your debts to see the total interest you pay and how much paying off a certain part reduces it. I think most people are capable of finding such a template, and if they aren’t, they’re still capable of using one, so it would be more helpful to point them to one then to tell them to pay off smaller debts first.

Amadeus Pagel 11 Mar 2026 11:21 UTC
2 points
0
on: Conflicted on Ramsey
Pay off the debt with the highest interest rate first seems like simple advice that most people should be able to follow. People are too eager to believe claims about how dumb most people are. Rules about “the total value of all vehicles” seem pointless and distracting.

Amadeus Pagel 22 Oct 2024 9:48 UTC
−3 points
−10
on: Amadeus Pagel’s Shortform
If I wanted to see a “quick take” I’d check twitter. I’d rather see more articles without having to click “load more”.

Amadeus Pagel’s Shortform

Amadeus Pagel22 Oct 2024 9:48 UTC

2 points

1 comment1 min readLW link

Amadeus Pagel 13 Jun 2024 0:31 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Julius’s comment on: Status quo bias is usually justified
Status quo bias is a tendency to be skeptical of change, not an outright rejection. I don’t see any reason to assume that this tendency is badly calibrated. I don’t think the internet had to overcome that much resistance. At least in the US, early legislation like Section 230 was supportive. There are also technologies where more skepticism would have been appropriate, like leaded gasoline, and arguably even cars.

Status quo bias is usually justified

Amadeus Pagel8 Jun 2024 14:54 UTC

10 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(amadeuspagel.substack.com)

Amadeus Pagel 24 Apr 2024 20:03 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: Parker Conley’s comment on: The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject
You’ve already mentioned cooking as an example and this is definitely something I’d like to imiprove in. I looked up how to crack eggs:
How to clip nails: https://www.tiktok.com/@jonijawne/video/7212337177772952838?q=cut%20nails&t=1713988543560
How to improve posture:

Amadeus Pagel 23 Apr 2024 17:59 UTC
2 points
0
on: The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject
I was enthusiastic about the title of this post, hoping for something different from the usual lesswrong content, but disappointed by most of the examples. In my view if you take this idea of learning tacit knowledge with video seriously, it shouldn’t affect just how you learn, but what you learn, rather then trying to learn book subjects by watching videos.

Amadeus Pagel 23 Apr 2024 17:51 UTC
7 points
0
on: Priors and Prejudice
See also Rational Polarization.

Amadeus Pagel 23 Apr 2024 17:49 UTC
3 points
9
on: Priors and Prejudice
I think charter cities are a questionable idea, even though I’m pro free markets. It seems that the sort of constitional change and stability required for a charter city is no easier to achieve then the kind of constitutional change and stability required for a free market in the entire country. I don’t think trying either in developing countries as an outsider is a good use of anyone’s resources.

Amadeus Pagel 1 Oct 2023 1:54 UTC
1 point
0
in reply to: thenoviceoof’s comment on: The Limits of the Existence Proof Argument for General Intelligence
I think the 1st argument proves too much—I don’t think we usually expect simulations to never work unless otherwise proven? Maybe I’m misunderstanding your point?
We usually use the term simulation to refer to models that are meant to help us understand something, maybe even to make predictions, but not to replace what is supposed to be simulated.
To keep things brief, the human intelligence explosion seems to require open brain surgery to re-arrange neurons, which seems a lot more complicated than flipping bits in RAM.
Yes, this is one of the many differences between the brain and the computer, and given so many differences we simply can’t conclude from any attribute of a brain that a computer with the same attribute is possible.

The Limits of the Existence Proof Argument for General Intelligence

Amadeus Pagel19 Sep 2023 17:45 UTC

−21 points

3 comments1 min readLW link

(amadeuspagel.com)

Amadeus Pagel 21 Jun 2022 22:04 UTC
4 points
0
in reply to: Vaniver’s comment on: One single meme that makes you Less Wrong in general
Then why not choose the 5 year window?

Amadeus Pagel 21 Jun 2022 21:38 UTC
4 points
0
on: One single meme that makes you Less Wrong in general
You’ve selected the YTD (year to date) tab here. If you look at the 1D (today) tab, you see that the S&P indeed went up today.

Amadeus Pagel 10 Jun 2022 20:41 UTC
13 points
1
on: AGI Safety FAQ / all-dumb-questions-allowed thread
Meta: Anonymity would make it easier to ask dumb questions.
What links here?
- Holly Morgan's comment on All AGI Safety questions welcome (especially basic ones) [~monthly thread] by robertskmiles (EA Forum; 2 Nov 2022 13:10 UTC; 19 points)
- Holly Morgan's comment on All AGI Safety questions welcome (especially basic ones) [April 2023] by StevenKaas (EA Forum; 8 Apr 2023 8:22 UTC; 5 points)

Amadeus Pagel 10 Jun 2022 20:15 UTC
8 points
5
in reply to: mako yass’s comment on: AGI Safety FAQ / all-dumb-questions-allowed thread
Agreed. Humans are constantly optimizing a reward function, but it sort of ‘changes’ from moment to moment in a near-focal way, so it often looks irrational or self-defeating, but once you know what the reward function is, the goal-directedness is easy to see too.

Doesn’t this become tautological? If the reward function changes from moment to moment, then the reward function can just be whatever explains the behaviour.

Amadeus Pagel 10 Jun 2022 20:08 UTC
6 points
1
in reply to: James_Miller’s comment on: AGI Safety FAQ / all-dumb-questions-allowed thread
Would humans, or organizations of humans, make more progress towards whatever goals they have, if they modified themselves to become a utility maximizer? If so, why don’t they? If not, why would an AGI?
What would it mean to modify oneself to become a utility maximizer? What would it mean for the US, for example? The only meaning I can imagine is that one individual—for the sake of argument we assume that this individual is already an utility maximizer—enforces his will on everyone else. Would that help the US make more progress towards its goals? Do countries that are closer to utility maximizers, like North Korea, make more progress towards their goals?