These are my half baked thoughts on this, putting aside alignment and AI risk completely:
I am betting that large returns will come to those that either own the models underlying AGI (if they are hard / expensive to recreate) and supply them to others via a paid API, or those that build compelling products using AGI. The 2nd category of companies will probably be startups that pop up once we have AGI, so no way to invest in them right now unless you can invest indirectly in a VC fund you think will be likely to fund those startups.
For the 1st category, I think OpenAI and DeepMind are the two most likely candidates. Deepmind you can invest in via Alphabet, but OpenAI is private. However, Microsoft has invested in OpenAI and has some sort of agreement to allow them to supply OpenAI models via Azure. Although Microsoft’s current market cap is largely not driven by its stake in / agreement with OpenAI, I think AGI is a large enough breakthrough that it would quickly drive much more of the value of Microsoft once / if it is created.
Therefore I’ve bought a bunch of Alphabet and Microsoft stock.
Helpful resource for whoever ends up doing this: Contraceptive Technology. It’s a huge book that summarises almost all effectiveness studies that have been done on contraceptives, including the definitions of perfect and typical use (very important when comparing contraceptives). It also has detailed summaries of side effects, medical interactions, description of method of action and well researched “advantages” and “disadvantages” sections — it’s basically what doctors use to decide how to prescribe birth control.
Source: I have used this book myself in research, I work for a birth control app company.