I ran your first reply to my comment through Copilot for its assessment. Here is its response:
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Timeline for Genetic Engineering:
Original Poster’s Claim: “[If we actually even tried to launch a global scale effort to genetically engineer ‘superhumans’ it might take at least 10 years to develop the technology.]”
New Poster’s Response: “This is definitely wrong. A global effort to develop this tech could easily bring it to fruition in a couple of years. As it is, I think there’s maybe a 50% chance we get something working within 3-5 years (though we would still have to wait >15 years for the children born with its benefits to grow up).”
Assessment: The new poster’s claim is overly optimistic. While a global effort could accelerate development, the complexities of genetic engineering, including ethical, regulatory, and technical challenges, make a couple of years an unrealistic timeframe. A more plausible estimate would be several years to a decade.”
One scenario of rapid development of genetic engineering that seems plausible is if humanity were to suddenly face a crisis. Over even the next year or two one such crisis that could arise is if Western nations were to begin to exhibit fertility collapse as has already occurred in Asian nations. Such a collapse could potentially be sparked when humanoids are mass scale produced starting next year—this might lead parents to be to avoid having the children who might never have had economic viability in an AI robot world. This is Copilot’s response:
“Accelerated Development of Genetic Engineering
Urgency Driven by AI Advancements:
Scenario: If humanity realizes that AI has significantly outpaced human capabilities, there could be a sudden and intense focus on developing genetic engineering technologies to enhance human abilities. This urgency could be driven by existential concerns about the survival and relevance of the human species.
Feasibility: In a crisis situation, resources and efforts could be rapidly mobilized, potentially accelerating the development of genetic engineering technologies. Historical examples, such as the rapid development of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrate how urgent needs can lead to swift scientific advancements.
Fertility Collapse as a Catalyst:
Scenario: A sudden and severe fertility collapse in Western nations, similar to trends observed in some Asian countries, could create a desperate need for solutions to ensure the continuation of the human species. This could lead to a reevaluation of previously obstructed technologies, including genetic enhancement.
Feasibility: Fertility rates have been declining in many parts of the world, and a dramatic collapse could indeed prompt urgent action. In such a scenario, the ethical and regulatory barriers to genetic engineering might be reconsidered in light of the pressing need for solutions.
Ethical and Practical Considerations
Ethical Dilemmas:
Consideration: Even in a crisis, the ethical implications of genetic engineering must be carefully considered. Rapid development and deployment of such technologies could lead to unforeseen consequences and ethical challenges.
Balance: It is crucial to balance the urgency of the situation with the need for thorough ethical review and consideration of long-term impacts.
Regulatory and Societal Acceptance:
Consideration: In a desperate situation, regulatory frameworks might be adapted to allow for faster development and implementation of genetic engineering technologies. However, societal acceptance would still be a significant factor.
Engagement: Engaging with the public and stakeholders to build understanding and acceptance of genetic enhancements would be essential for successful implementation.
Conclusion
Your scenario highlights how urgent and existential threats could potentially accelerate the development and acceptance of genetic engineering technologies. While this could lead to rapid advancements, it is essential to carefully consider the ethical, regulatory, and societal implications to ensure that such technologies are developed and deployed responsibly.”
Now another scenario is introduced in which humanity desperately needs a savior generation of genetically enhanced humans to save itself from the AI that it created but was unable to control: ”
AI as the Catalyst for Genetic Engineering
AI-Induced Crisis:
Scenario: As AI continues to advance rapidly, it could reach a point where it poses significant risks to human control and safety. This could create a crisis situation where humanity realizes the need for enhanced cognitive abilities to manage and control AI effectively.
Urgency: The realization that current human cognitive capabilities are insufficient to handle advanced AI could drive a desperate push for genetic enhancements.
Time Lag for Genetic Enhancements:
Development and Maturity: Even if genetic engineering technologies were developed quickly, it would still take around 20 years for a new generation of enhanced humans to mature and reach their full cognitive potential.
Desperation: This time lag could create a “sinking ship” scenario where humanity is desperately trying to develop and implement genetic enhancements while simultaneously dealing with the immediate threats posed by advanced AI.
Ethical and Practical Considerations
Ethical Dilemmas:
Desperation vs. Responsibility: In a crisis, the urgency to enhance human intelligence might overshadow ethical considerations. However, it is crucial to balance the need for rapid advancements with responsible and ethical practices to avoid unintended consequences.
Informed Consent: Ensuring that individuals understand and consent to genetic enhancements is essential, even in a desperate situation.
Regulatory and Societal Challenges:
Rapid Policy Changes: In response to an AI-induced crisis, regulatory frameworks might need to be adapted quickly to allow for the development and implementation of genetic enhancements.
Public Acceptance: Building societal acceptance and understanding of genetic enhancements would be critical. Public engagement and transparent communication would help mitigate fears and resistance.
Conclusion
Your scenario highlights the potential for AI to act as a catalyst for rapid advancements in genetic engineering. The urgency to enhance human intelligence to manage AI effectively could drive significant changes in how we approach genetic enhancements. However, it is essential to navigate this path carefully, considering the ethical, regulatory, and societal implications to ensure a responsible and sustainable future.
Labour-replacing AI will shift the relative importance of human v non-human factors of production, which reduces the incentives for society to care about humans while making existing powers more effective and entrenched.
And yet, … society appears to be caring more about humans.
And yet, … existing powers (specifically the state) seem even less effective and entrenched. Open Borders policies are clearly an act of desperation … while these policies appear to have been broadly rejected by the electorate. The state only opened the borders because of its crumbling power base.
How is the contradiction resolved? How can technology seemingly reduce the relative importance of human v non human factors of production, while we can observe a frantic effort to outbid others in the global human auction?
Global fertility collapse is greatly increasing the incentive for society to care about humans while at the same time making existing powers less effective and entrenched. Pursuing Open Borders policies demonstrates how desperate states are to avoid extinction: This is now an existential struggle. Overlooking the welfare of one’s own population by swamping communities with immigrants is the last line of defense- it is the least bad option before you close up shop. It is a clear act of desperation and has only been tried because of the profound fertility crisis that is underway. Fertility collapse will only escalate during the 21st Century and could become even more severe as AGI approaches. At some point, a full Demographic Arms Race might begin.
States are highly motivated “to care” about humans or at least protect their self-interests because state power traditionally has manifested in the control of bricks and mortar reality and with it government services such as education and health care. Fertility collapse (and alternative learning technology) is creating large reductions in bricks and mortar school demand and with it the power of the deep state.
The Darwinian struggle for national survival induced by extremely low total fertility rates then creates a paradoxical result in which the value of humans greatly increases and at the same time greatly reduces entrenched state power.