Adam Shen

• Adam Shen 12 Feb 2025 5:42 UTC

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  on: La­tent vari­ables for pre­dic­tion mar­kets: mo­ti­va­tion, tech­ni­cal guide, and de­sign considerations

  P(→Xi)=∑jpj∏iXiqi,j+(1−Xi)(1−qi,j)

  Maybe I’m missing something, but if we are estimating the P(Xi), how can we also have Xi on RHS? and what is the adjustment +(1−Xi)(1−qi,j). why is that there?