The argument is that there might not be a single Consensus-1 controlled military even in the US. I think it seems unlikely that the combined US AI police forces will be able to compete with the US AI national military, which is one reason I’m skeptical of this.
I agree the US could choose to do the industrial explosion & arms buildup in a way that’s robust to all of OpenBrain’s AIs turning out to be misaligned. However, they won’t, because (a) that would have substantial costs /slowdown effects in the race against China, (b) they already decided that OpenBrain’s AIs were aligned in late 2027 and have only had more evidence to confirm that bias since then, and (c) OpenBrain’s AIs are superhuman at politics, persuasion, etc. (and everything else) and will effectively steer/lobby/etc. things in the right direction from their perspective.
I think this would be more clear if Vitalik or someone else undertook the task of making an alternative scenario.
I agree the US could choose to do the industrial explosion & arms buildup in a way that’s robust to all of OpenBrain’s AIs turning out to be misaligned. However, they won’t, because (a) that would have substantial costs /slowdown effects in the race against China, (b) they already decided that OpenBrain’s AIs were aligned in late 2027 and have only had more evidence to confirm that bias since then, and (c) OpenBrain’s AIs are superhuman at politics, persuasion, etc. (and everything else) and will effectively steer/lobby/etc. things in the right direction from their perspective.
I think this would be more clear if Vitalik or someone else undertook the task of making an alternative scenario.