It also seems like you are not actually utility indifferent as between a 90% chance of $1b and a 9% chance of $9b—the former seems far more valuable to me because once you have about ~$10m, the rest is just points on a scoreboard. So to the extent that you are more emotionally comfortable with 90%/$1b I think it’s actually because the expected utility of 90%/$1b is almost 10 times higher than the expected utility of 9%/$9b. And so to the extent you are setting your motivation based on these 2 things, you are importantly fooling yourself here.
TBH, for the equation “Util(90% chance of $1b) = Util(9% chance of $X)”, I don’t think there is any finite X that can solve that equation.
It also seems like you are not actually utility indifferent as between a 90% chance of $1b and a 9% chance of $9b—the former seems far more valuable to me because once you have about ~$10m, the rest is just points on a scoreboard. So to the extent that you are more emotionally comfortable with 90%/$1b I think it’s actually because the expected utility of 90%/$1b is almost 10 times higher than the expected utility of 9%/$9b. And so to the extent you are setting your motivation based on these 2 things, you are importantly fooling yourself here.
TBH, for the equation “Util(90% chance of $1b) = Util(9% chance of $X)”, I don’t think there is any finite X that can solve that equation.