As a scientist I’m going to be a total wet blanket and make a broader statement agreeing with this: it’s unclear if actual effectiveness has a power law distribution, or if it’s merely the claims of effectiveness that have that distribution. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence—the surprising part of the distribution is exactly the part we should be most suspicious of.
Of course, this is why we want GiveWell doing research into it. But I don’t think they should assume this distribution is true.
“it’s unclear if actual effectiveness has a power law distribution, or if it’s merely the claims of effectiveness that have that distribution”
I talked to Toby Ord some about this today. He brought up that on the right hand of the distribution there have been some interventions (ex: smallpox eradication) that are much more effective than even the best ones available now.
As a scientist I’m going to be a total wet blanket and make a broader statement agreeing with this: it’s unclear if actual effectiveness has a power law distribution, or if it’s merely the claims of effectiveness that have that distribution. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence—the surprising part of the distribution is exactly the part we should be most suspicious of.
Of course, this is why we want GiveWell doing research into it. But I don’t think they should assume this distribution is true.
“it’s unclear if actual effectiveness has a power law distribution, or if it’s merely the claims of effectiveness that have that distribution”
I talked to Toby Ord some about this today. He brought up that on the right hand of the distribution there have been some interventions (ex: smallpox eradication) that are much more effective than even the best ones available now.