Huh, whaddayaknow, turns out Altman was in the end pushed back, the new interim CEO is someone who is pretty safety-focused, and you were entirely wrong.
Normalize waiting for more details before dropping confident hot takes.
You’re not taking your own advice. Since your message, Ilya has publicly backed down, and Polymarket has Sam coming back as CEO at coinflip odds: Polymarket | Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?
I should note that while your attitude is understandable, event “Roko said his confident predictions out loud” is actually good, because we can evaluate his overconfidence and update our models accordingly.
Huh, whaddayaknow, turns out Altman was in the end pushed back, the new interim CEO is someone who is pretty safety-focused, and you were entirely wrong.
Normalize waiting for more details before dropping confident hot takes.
You’re not taking your own advice. Since your message, Ilya has publicly backed down, and Polymarket has Sam coming back as CEO at coinflip odds: Polymarket | Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?
I should note that while your attitude is understandable, event “Roko said his confident predictions out loud” is actually good, because we can evaluate his overconfidence and update our models accordingly.
Well, Altman is back in charge now.… I don’t think I’m being overconfident
“Estimate overconfidence” implies that estimate can be zero!
True. I may in fact have been somewhat underconfident here.
It seems that I was mostly right in the specifics, there was a lot of resistance to getting rid of Altman and he is back (for now)