Way back in 2020 there was an article A Proposed Origin For SARS-COV-2 and the COVID-19 Pandemic, which I read after George Church tweeted it (!) (without comment or explanation). Their proposal (they call it “Mojiang Miner Passage” theory) in brief was that it WAS a lab leak but NOT gain-of-function. Rather, in April 2012, six workers in a “Mojiang mine fell ill from a mystery illness while removing bat faeces. Three of the six subsequently died.” Their symptoms were a perfect match to COVID, and two were very sick for more than four months.
The proposal is that the virus spent those four months adapting to life in human lungs, including (presumably) evolving the furin cleavage site. And then (this is also well-documented) samples from these miners were sent to WIV. The proposed theory is that those samples sat in a freezer at WIV for a few years while WIV was constructing some new lab facilities, and then in 2019 researchers pulled out those samples for study and infected themselves.
I like that theory! I’ve liked it ever since 2020! It seems to explain many of the contradictions brought up by both sides of this debate—it’s compatible with Saar’s claim that the furin cleavage site is very different from what’s in nature and seems specifically adapted to humans, but it’s also compatible with Peter’s claim that the furin cleavage site looks weird and evolved. It’s compatible with Saar’s claim that WIV is suspiciously close to the source of the outbreak, but it’s also compatible with Peter’s claim that WIV might not have been set up to do serious GoF experiments. It’s compatible with the data comparing COVID to other previously-known viruses (supposedly). Etc.
Old as this theory is, the authors are still pushing it and they claim that it’s consistent with all the evidence that’s come out since then (see author’s blog). But I’m sure not remotely an expert, and would be interested if anyone has opinions about this. I’m still confused why it’s never been much discussed.
I agree, I think the most likely version of the lab leak scenario does not involve an engineered virus. Personally I would say 60% chance zoonotic, 40% chance lab leak.
Given that they had engineered viruses in the lab at biosafety level II, why do you think the most likely version of the lab leak scenario does not involve an engineered virus?
My take is: I really haven’t been following the lab leak stuff. The point of my comment was to bring this hypothesis to the attention of people who have, and hopefully get some takes from them. As I understand it:
We know for sure that miners went into a cave, the same cave where btw one of the closest known wild relatives of COVID was later sampled
We know for sure that the miners got sick with COVID-like symptoms, some for 4+ months
We know for sure that samples (including posthumous samples) from those sick miners were sent to WIV, and that the researchers still had access to those samples into 2020
I think that’s more than enough to at least raise the Mojiang Miner Passage theory to consideration. Figuring out whether the theory is actually true or not would require a lot more beyond that, e.g. arguments about the exact genetic code of the furin cleavage site and all this other stuff which is way outside my area of expertise. :)
Way back in 2020 there was an article A Proposed Origin For SARS-COV-2 and the COVID-19 Pandemic, which I read after George Church tweeted it (!) (without comment or explanation). Their proposal (they call it “Mojiang Miner Passage” theory) in brief was that it WAS a lab leak but NOT gain-of-function. Rather, in April 2012, six workers in a “Mojiang mine fell ill from a mystery illness while removing bat faeces. Three of the six subsequently died.” Their symptoms were a perfect match to COVID, and two were very sick for more than four months.
The proposal is that the virus spent those four months adapting to life in human lungs, including (presumably) evolving the furin cleavage site. And then (this is also well-documented) samples from these miners were sent to WIV. The proposed theory is that those samples sat in a freezer at WIV for a few years while WIV was constructing some new lab facilities, and then in 2019 researchers pulled out those samples for study and infected themselves.
I like that theory! I’ve liked it ever since 2020! It seems to explain many of the contradictions brought up by both sides of this debate—it’s compatible with Saar’s claim that the furin cleavage site is very different from what’s in nature and seems specifically adapted to humans, but it’s also compatible with Peter’s claim that the furin cleavage site looks weird and evolved. It’s compatible with Saar’s claim that WIV is suspiciously close to the source of the outbreak, but it’s also compatible with Peter’s claim that WIV might not have been set up to do serious GoF experiments. It’s compatible with the data comparing COVID to other previously-known viruses (supposedly). Etc.
Old as this theory is, the authors are still pushing it and they claim that it’s consistent with all the evidence that’s come out since then (see author’s blog). But I’m sure not remotely an expert, and would be interested if anyone has opinions about this. I’m still confused why it’s never been much discussed.
I agree, I think the most likely version of the lab leak scenario does not involve an engineered virus. Personally I would say 60% chance zoonotic, 40% chance lab leak.
Given that they had engineered viruses in the lab at biosafety level II, why do you think the most likely version of the lab leak scenario does not involve an engineered virus?
I’m interested in Metacelsus’s answer.
My take is: I really haven’t been following the lab leak stuff. The point of my comment was to bring this hypothesis to the attention of people who have, and hopefully get some takes from them. As I understand it:
We know for sure that miners went into a cave, the same cave where btw one of the closest known wild relatives of COVID was later sampled
We know for sure that the miners got sick with COVID-like symptoms, some for 4+ months
We know for sure that samples (including posthumous samples) from those sick miners were sent to WIV, and that the researchers still had access to those samples into 2020
I think that’s more than enough to at least raise the Mojiang Miner Passage theory to consideration. Figuring out whether the theory is actually true or not would require a lot more beyond that, e.g. arguments about the exact genetic code of the furin cleavage site and all this other stuff which is way outside my area of expertise. :)