I am confused about why it’s better to get Omicron later rather than sooner. I understand that avoiding overloaded hospitals is a good idea, but the reports from people who have Omicron (understanding that first-hand reports are created by people well enough to report and/or by bad actors) suggest that getting Omicron right now is equivalent to a nasty cold.
Even the data suggests that getting Omicron right now is much less likely to lead to hospitalization, regardless of whether you feel chipper enough to tweet about it.
So… why do you assume that catching Omicron in March instead of right now will lead to better outcomes on the individual and/or public health level? Omicron might not be the dominant variant in March, after all, and getting immunity now could be a smart move. The equation changes if you have comorbidities, of course, so I may only be speaking for my own long-term health goals here.
I think this only matters if you happen to get an unusually severe case that requires hospitalization, but that still affects the expected value somewhat.
I am confused about why it’s better to get Omicron later rather than sooner. I understand that avoiding overloaded hospitals is a good idea, but the reports from people who have Omicron (understanding that first-hand reports are created by people well enough to report and/or by bad actors) suggest that getting Omicron right now is equivalent to a nasty cold.
Even the data suggests that getting Omicron right now is much less likely to lead to hospitalization, regardless of whether you feel chipper enough to tweet about it.
So… why do you assume that catching Omicron in March instead of right now will lead to better outcomes on the individual and/or public health level? Omicron might not be the dominant variant in March, after all, and getting immunity now could be a smart move. The equation changes if you have comorbidities, of course, so I may only be speaking for my own long-term health goals here.
(yes I have read Tyler Cowen’s post about this)
Consider that in March it is much more likely that Paxlovid will be widely available than in February.
I think this only matters if you happen to get an unusually severe case that requires hospitalization, but that still affects the expected value somewhat.