I think a link or summary of the “proof”, and description of the parts of it that you’re wondering about, would go a long way toward making this a useful question.
I couldn’t find a concise summary of exactly which argument you’re asking about, so I’ll just say that all probability is in the agent’s map—it’s a prediction of future experiences. There may or may not be an underlying “reality”, but even if there is, there’s no access to any outside observer.
So 1⁄2 or 1⁄3 are valid answers to different questions.
I think a link or summary of the “proof”, and description of the parts of it that you’re wondering about, would go a long way toward making this a useful question.
I couldn’t find a concise summary of exactly which argument you’re asking about, so I’ll just say that all probability is in the agent’s map—it’s a prediction of future experiences. There may or may not be an underlying “reality”, but even if there is, there’s no access to any outside observer.
So 1⁄2 or 1⁄3 are valid answers to different questions.