Thanks, agree that ‘emergent dynamics’ is woolly above.
I guess I don’t think the y-axis should be the temporal dimension. To give some cartoon examples:
I’d put an extremely Machievellian 10 year plan on the part of a cabal of politicians to backslide into a dictatorship then seize power over the rest of the world near the top end of the axis
I’d put unfavourable order of capabilities, where in an unplanned way superpersuasion comes online before defenses, and actors fail to coordinate not to deploy it because of competitive dynamics, near the bottom end of the axis. Even if the whole thing unfolds over a few months
I do think the y-axis is pretty correlated with temporal scales, but I don’t think it’s the same. I also don’t think physical violence is the same, though it’s probably also correlated (cf the backsliding example which is v powerseeking but not v violent).
The thing I had in mind was more like, should I imagine some actor consciously trying to bring power concentration about? To the extent that’s a good model, it’s power-seeking. Or should I imagine that no actor is consciously planning this, but the net result of the system is still extreme power concentration? If that’s a good model, it’s emergent dynamics.
Idk, I see that this is messy and probably there’s some other better concept here
Thank you for clarifying, I think I understand now!
I notice I was not that clear when writing my comment yesterday so I want to apologise for that.
I’ll give an attempt at restating what you said in other terms. There’s a concept of temporal depth in action plans. The question is to some extent, how many steps in the future are you looking similar to something else. A simple way of imagining this is how long in the future a chess bot can plan and how stockfish is able to plan basically 20-40 moves in advance.
It seems similar to what you’re talking about here in that the longer someone plans in the future, the more external attempts it avoids with regards to external actions.
Some other words to describe the general vibe might be planned vs unplanned or maybe centralized versus decentralized? Maybe controlled versus uncontrolled? I get the vibe better now though so thanks!
Thanks, agree that ‘emergent dynamics’ is woolly above.
I guess I don’t think the y-axis should be the temporal dimension. To give some cartoon examples:
I’d put an extremely Machievellian 10 year plan on the part of a cabal of politicians to backslide into a dictatorship then seize power over the rest of the world near the top end of the axis
I’d put unfavourable order of capabilities, where in an unplanned way superpersuasion comes online before defenses, and actors fail to coordinate not to deploy it because of competitive dynamics, near the bottom end of the axis. Even if the whole thing unfolds over a few months
I do think the y-axis is pretty correlated with temporal scales, but I don’t think it’s the same. I also don’t think physical violence is the same, though it’s probably also correlated (cf the backsliding example which is v powerseeking but not v violent).
The thing I had in mind was more like, should I imagine some actor consciously trying to bring power concentration about? To the extent that’s a good model, it’s power-seeking. Or should I imagine that no actor is consciously planning this, but the net result of the system is still extreme power concentration? If that’s a good model, it’s emergent dynamics.
Idk, I see that this is messy and probably there’s some other better concept here
Thank you for clarifying, I think I understand now!
I notice I was not that clear when writing my comment yesterday so I want to apologise for that.
I’ll give an attempt at restating what you said in other terms. There’s a concept of temporal depth in action plans. The question is to some extent, how many steps in the future are you looking similar to something else. A simple way of imagining this is how long in the future a chess bot can plan and how stockfish is able to plan basically 20-40 moves in advance.
It seems similar to what you’re talking about here in that the longer someone plans in the future, the more external attempts it avoids with regards to external actions.
Some other words to describe the general vibe might be planned vs unplanned or maybe centralized versus decentralized? Maybe controlled versus uncontrolled? I get the vibe better now though so thanks!