I guess I’m a bit confused why the emergent dynamics and the power-seeking are on different ends of the spectrum?
Like what do you even mean by emergent dynamics there? Are we talking about non-power seeking system, and in that case, what systems are non-power seeking?
I would claim that there is no system that is not power-seeking since any system that survives needs to do bayesian inference and therefore needs to minimize free energy. (Self-referencing here but whatever) hence any surviving system needs to power-seek, given power-seeking is attaining more causal control over the future.
So therefore, there is no future where there is no power-seeking system it is just that the thing that power-seeks acts over larger timespans and is more of a slow actor. The agentic attractor space is just not human flesh bag space nor traditional space, it is different yet still a power seeker.
Still, I do like what you say about the change in the dynamics and how power-seeking is maybe more about a shorter temporal scale? It feels like the y-axis should be that temporal axis instead since it seems to be more what you’re actually pointing at?
Thanks, agree that ‘emergent dynamics’ is woolly above.
I guess I don’t think the y-axis should be the temporal dimension. To give some cartoon examples:
I’d put an extremely Machievellian 10 year plan on the part of a cabal of politicians to backslide into a dictatorship then seize power over the rest of the world near the top end of the axis
I’d put unfavourable order of capabilities, where in an unplanned way superpersuasion comes online before defenses, and actors fail to coordinate not to deploy it because of competitive dynamics, near the bottom end of the axis. Even if the whole thing unfolds over a few months
I do think the y-axis is pretty correlated with temporal scales, but I don’t think it’s the same. I also don’t think physical violence is the same, though it’s probably also correlated (cf the backsliding example which is v powerseeking but not v violent).
The thing I had in mind was more like, should I imagine some actor consciously trying to bring power concentration about? To the extent that’s a good model, it’s power-seeking. Or should I imagine that no actor is consciously planning this, but the net result of the system is still extreme power concentration? If that’s a good model, it’s emergent dynamics.
Idk, I see that this is messy and probably there’s some other better concept here
Thank you for clarifying, I think I understand now!
I notice I was not that clear when writing my comment yesterday so I want to apologise for that.
I’ll give an attempt at restating what you said in other terms. There’s a concept of temporal depth in action plans. The question is to some extent, how many steps in the future are you looking similar to something else. A simple way of imagining this is how long in the future a chess bot can plan and how stockfish is able to plan basically 20-40 moves in advance.
It seems similar to what you’re talking about here in that the longer someone plans in the future, the more external attempts it avoids with regards to external actions.
Some other words to describe the general vibe might be planned vs unplanned or maybe centralized versus decentralized? Maybe controlled versus uncontrolled? I get the vibe better now though so thanks!
I guess I’m a bit confused why the emergent dynamics and the power-seeking are on different ends of the spectrum?
Like what do you even mean by emergent dynamics there? Are we talking about non-power seeking system, and in that case, what systems are non-power seeking?
I would claim that there is no system that is not power-seeking since any system that survives needs to do bayesian inference and therefore needs to minimize free energy. (Self-referencing here but whatever) hence any surviving system needs to power-seek, given power-seeking is attaining more causal control over the future.
So therefore, there is no future where there is no power-seeking system it is just that the thing that power-seeks acts over larger timespans and is more of a slow actor. The agentic attractor space is just not human flesh bag space nor traditional space, it is different yet still a power seeker.
Still, I do like what you say about the change in the dynamics and how power-seeking is maybe more about a shorter temporal scale? It feels like the y-axis should be that temporal axis instead since it seems to be more what you’re actually pointing at?
Thanks, agree that ‘emergent dynamics’ is woolly above.
I guess I don’t think the y-axis should be the temporal dimension. To give some cartoon examples:
I’d put an extremely Machievellian 10 year plan on the part of a cabal of politicians to backslide into a dictatorship then seize power over the rest of the world near the top end of the axis
I’d put unfavourable order of capabilities, where in an unplanned way superpersuasion comes online before defenses, and actors fail to coordinate not to deploy it because of competitive dynamics, near the bottom end of the axis. Even if the whole thing unfolds over a few months
I do think the y-axis is pretty correlated with temporal scales, but I don’t think it’s the same. I also don’t think physical violence is the same, though it’s probably also correlated (cf the backsliding example which is v powerseeking but not v violent).
The thing I had in mind was more like, should I imagine some actor consciously trying to bring power concentration about? To the extent that’s a good model, it’s power-seeking. Or should I imagine that no actor is consciously planning this, but the net result of the system is still extreme power concentration? If that’s a good model, it’s emergent dynamics.
Idk, I see that this is messy and probably there’s some other better concept here
Thank you for clarifying, I think I understand now!
I notice I was not that clear when writing my comment yesterday so I want to apologise for that.
I’ll give an attempt at restating what you said in other terms. There’s a concept of temporal depth in action plans. The question is to some extent, how many steps in the future are you looking similar to something else. A simple way of imagining this is how long in the future a chess bot can plan and how stockfish is able to plan basically 20-40 moves in advance.
It seems similar to what you’re talking about here in that the longer someone plans in the future, the more external attempts it avoids with regards to external actions.
Some other words to describe the general vibe might be planned vs unplanned or maybe centralized versus decentralized? Maybe controlled versus uncontrolled? I get the vibe better now though so thanks!
I think it’s the combination of a temporal axis and a (for a lack of a better term) physical violence axis.