Yeah, those graphs look kind of off. In particular: it supposedly started happening in October 2022? That’s pre-GPT-4, and GPT-4 was very barely able to code anything useful. I don’t buy that GPT-3.5, effectively the proof-of-concept technical demo, had this sort of effect.
I guess maybe companies recognized where AI progress was headed and foresightfully downscaled their hiring practices in expectation of AI advancing faster than early-career humans can be trained? I, likewise, don’t buy this level of industry-wide foresight.
My guess is that “2022 changed it” because of e. g. the Russia-Ukraine war and general rising world instability, not because of AI.
Yeah, those graphs look kind of off. In particular: it supposedly started happening in October 2022? That’s pre-GPT-4, and GPT-4 was very barely able to code anything useful. I don’t buy that GPT-3.5, effectively the proof-of-concept technical demo, had this sort of effect.
I guess maybe companies recognized where AI progress was headed and foresightfully downscaled their hiring practices in expectation of AI advancing faster than early-career humans can be trained? I, likewise, don’t buy this level of industry-wide foresight.
My guess is that “2022 changed it” because of e. g. the Russia-Ukraine war and general rising world instability, not because of AI.