You may want to have a look at the Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors post, which itself refers to Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors. I think your writeup falls into this wider category, and you may see which of the discussed estimates (which get weighted together in the post) is closest to your approach or whether it is systematically different.
You may want to have a look at the Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors post, which itself refers to Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors. I think your writeup falls into this wider category, and you may see which of the discussed estimates (which get weighted together in the post) is closest to your approach or whether it is systematically different.