But Gwern has responded to this paper pointing out several flaws… (having trouble finding his response right now..ugh)
However, we have lots of reasons to think Moore’s law will continue … in particular future AI will be on custom ASICs / TPUs / neuromorphic chips, which is a very different story. I wrote about this long ago, in 2015. Such chips, especially asynchronous and analog ones, can be vastly more energy efficient.
On current hardware, sure.
It does look like scaling will hit a wall soon if hardware doesn’t improve, see this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.05558
But Gwern has responded to this paper pointing out several flaws… (having trouble finding his response right now..ugh)
However, we have lots of reasons to think Moore’s law will continue … in particular future AI will be on custom ASICs / TPUs / neuromorphic chips, which is a very different story. I wrote about this long ago, in 2015. Such chips, especially asynchronous and analog ones, can be vastly more energy efficient.