(Figures I can find indicate that the figures today are less than 2⁄3 the rate at the end of that graph circa 2005, and that while there are a few particular age subdemographics in which male-to-male sexual transmission rose slightly over the last decade total male-to-male transmission constantly declined.)
Annual figures from Russia indicate a massive decrease in spread in the early 2000s, and a major downward phase-shift in spread amongst infected people in the homosexual population circa 1996 when you compare the fraction that are infected via different routes with the total number of cases.
As near as I can tell the disease is now sub-replacement in the United States, with each person who gets it (a bit over half of all new infections now being male-to-male sexually transmitted) on average infecting less than one additional person over their expected lifespan, and this was true both just before and after antiretrovirals began massively extending life. That’s a hell of a behavior change from the early days of the epidemic.
The transmission rate per-infected-capita has declined dramatically from the height of the epidemic and continues to drop:
http://www.microbiologybook.org/lecture/transmission-lg.gif
(Figures I can find indicate that the figures today are less than 2⁄3 the rate at the end of that graph circa 2005, and that while there are a few particular age subdemographics in which male-to-male sexual transmission rose slightly over the last decade total male-to-male transmission constantly declined.)
Annual figures from Russia indicate a massive decrease in spread in the early 2000s, and a major downward phase-shift in spread amongst infected people in the homosexual population circa 1996 when you compare the fraction that are infected via different routes with the total number of cases.
http://darussophile.com/2009/03/myth-of-russian-aids-apocalypse/
As near as I can tell the disease is now sub-replacement in the United States, with each person who gets it (a bit over half of all new infections now being male-to-male sexually transmitted) on average infecting less than one additional person over their expected lifespan, and this was true both just before and after antiretrovirals began massively extending life. That’s a hell of a behavior change from the early days of the epidemic.