I’m not talking about “by default”. Of course that is going to fail, for the same reason as “assume by default that every scoop of dirt has a diamond in it” will fail. Most people aren’t interesting, and if you’re paying attention to how the expected payoffs evolve, it doesn’t take years to notice that you need to be interested a lot fewer people.
The fact that you frame this as “I tried it, for years” shows that you’re taking a very low resolution long feedback loop approach to this. The things I’m talking about don’t show up at this resolution, and take too many feedback loops to develop on these timescales.
The question isn’t “Is it better to assume every scoop of dirt has a diamond in it, or give up altogether”, it’s… well, a bunch of things, but “Does this particular scoop have a diamond in it?” is one. “What am I even mining for, anyway?” is another. Who did I take an interest in, why did I think they were worth being interested in, how did I get that wrong, what is the updated set of criteria for someone to be interesting? How much can I trust my own predictions about who will prove worthwhile?
What I’m pointing at has nothing to do with the answer you have to any specific question. If you think most people are uninteresting, fine. Me too man, me too.
What I’m pointing at is that the presuppositions you’re using, and the way you frame things, heavily suggest that there are specific questions you’re not asking—or at least, not sitting with for long enough for the answers to shift. There’s a fluidity to be had, which allows for better conformance to reality, which isn’t showing up in how you’re writing about these things.
I’m not talking about “by default”. Of course that is going to fail, for the same reason as “assume by default that every scoop of dirt has a diamond in it” will fail. Most people aren’t interesting, and if you’re paying attention to how the expected payoffs evolve, it doesn’t take years to notice that you need to be interested a lot fewer people.
The fact that you frame this as “I tried it, for years” shows that you’re taking a very low resolution long feedback loop approach to this. The things I’m talking about don’t show up at this resolution, and take too many feedback loops to develop on these timescales.
The question isn’t “Is it better to assume every scoop of dirt has a diamond in it, or give up altogether”, it’s… well, a bunch of things, but “Does this particular scoop have a diamond in it?” is one. “What am I even mining for, anyway?” is another. Who did I take an interest in, why did I think they were worth being interested in, how did I get that wrong, what is the updated set of criteria for someone to be interesting? How much can I trust my own predictions about who will prove worthwhile?
What I’m pointing at has nothing to do with the answer you have to any specific question. If you think most people are uninteresting, fine. Me too man, me too.
What I’m pointing at is that the presuppositions you’re using, and the way you frame things, heavily suggest that there are specific questions you’re not asking—or at least, not sitting with for long enough for the answers to shift. There’s a fluidity to be had, which allows for better conformance to reality, which isn’t showing up in how you’re writing about these things.