I think LessWrong as a whole would find you less frustrating if you assumed most comments from established users on domain-specific concepts or facts were more likely to be correct
Agreed. That’s easier. However, sometimes the easier way is not the correct way.
I wish I could trust other’s information. I have wished that my entire life. It is frequently exhausting and damn hard to question this much of what people say. But I want to be correct, not merely pleasant, and that’s life.
Eliezer intended for us to question authority. I’d have done it anyway because I started doing that ages ago. But he said in no uncertain terms that this is what he wants:
In Two More Things to Unlearn from School he warns his readers that “It may be dangerous to present people with a giant mass of authoritative knowledge, especially if it is actually true. It may damage their skepticism.”
In Cached Thoughts he tells you to question what HE says. “Now that you’ve read this blog post, the next time you hear someone unhesitatingly repeating a meme you think is silly or false, you’ll think, “Cached thoughts.” My belief is now there in your mind, waiting to complete the pattern. But is it true? Don’t let your mind complete the pattern! Think!”
Perhaps there is a way to be more pleasant while still questioning everything. If you can think of something, I will consider it.
I’m not saying that a hypothetical vague “you” shouldn’t question things. I’m saying that you specifically, User: Epiphany, seem to not be very well-calibrated in this respect and should update towards questioning things less until you have a better feel for LessWrong discussion norms and epistemic standards.
I’m not saying that a hypothetical vague “you” shouldn’t question things.
Neither was I:
what reason do I have to believe that any authority figure or expert or established user is more likely to be correct?
I’m saying that you specifically, User: Epiphany, seem to not be very well-calibrated in this respect and should update towards questioning things less until you have a better feel for LessWrong discussion norms and epistemic standards.
So, trust you guys more while I’m still trying to figure out how much to trust you? Not going to happen, sorry.
Perhaps the perception you’re having is caused by the fact that you did not know how cynical I was when I started. My trust has increased quite a bit. If I appear not to trust Alicorn very much, this is because I’ve seen what appears to be an unusually high number of mistakes. I realize that this may be due to biased sample (I haven’t read thousands of Alicorn’s posts, maybe a dozen or so). But I’m not going to update with information I don’t have, and I don’t see it as a good use of time to go reading lots and lots of posts by Alicorn and whoever else trying to figure out how much to trust them. I will have a realistic idea of her eventually.
You might think about the reasons people have for saying the things they say. Why do people make false statements? The most common reasons probably fall under intentional deception (“lying”), indifference toward telling the truth (“bullshitting”), having been deceived by another, motivated cognition, confabulation, or mistake. As you’ve noticed, scientists and educators can face situations where complete integrity and honesty comes into conflict with their own career objectives, but there’s no apparent incentive for anyone to distort the truth about the name of the Center for Applied Rationality. There’s also no apparent motivation for Alicorn to bullshit or confabulate; if she isn’t quite sure she remembers the name, she doesn’t have anything to lose by simply moving on without commenting, nor does she have much to gain by getting away with posting the wrong name. That leaves the possibility that she has the wrong name by an unintended mistake. But different people’s chances of making a mistake are not necessarily equal. By being more directly involved with the organization, Alicorn has had many more opportunities to be corrected about the name than you have. That makes it much more likely that you are the one making the mistake, as turned out to be the case.
Perhaps there is a way to be more pleasant while still questioning everything. If you can think of something, I will consider it.
You could phrase your questions as questions rather than statements. You could also take extra care to confirm your facts before you preface a statement with “no, actually”.
there’s no apparent incentive for anyone to distort the truth about the name of the Center for Applied Rationality. There’s also no apparent motivation for Alicorn to bullshit or confabulate
I know. But it’s possible for her to be unaware of the existence of CFMR, had there been two orgs. If you read the entire disagreement, you’ll notice that what it came down to is that it did not occur to me that CFMR might have changed it’s name. Therefore, denial that it existed appeared to be in direct conflict with the evidence. The evidence being two articles where people were creating CFMR.
Alicorn has had many more opportunities to be corrected about the name than you have.
I was surprised she didn’t seem to know about it, but then again, if she doesn’t read every single post on here, it’s possible she didn’t know. I don’t know how much she knows, or who she specifically talks to, or how often she talks to them, or whether she might have been out sick for a month or what might have happened. For something that small, I am not going to go to great lengths to analyze her every potential motive for being correct or incorrect. My assessment was simple for that reason.
As for wanting to trust people more, I’ve been thinking about ways to go about that, but I doubt I will do it by trying to rule out every possible reason for them to have been wrong. That’s a long list, and it’s dependent upon my imperfect ability to think of all the reasons that a person might be wrong. I’m more likely to go about it from a totally different angle: How many scientists are there? What things do most of them agree on? How many of those have been proven false? Okay, that’s an estimated X percent chance that what most scientists believe is actually true based on sample set of (whatever) size.
You could phrase your questions as questions rather than statements.
This is a good suggestion, and I normally do.
You could also take extra care to confirm your facts before you preface a statement with “no, actually”.
I did confirm my fact with two articles. That is why it became a “no actually” instead of a question.
Agreed. That’s easier. However, sometimes the easier way is not the correct way.
In a world where the authoritative “facts” can be wrong more often than they’re right, scientists often take a roughly superstitious approach to science and the educational system isn’t even optimized for the purpose of educating what reason do I have to believe that any authority figure or expert or established user is more likely to be correct?
I wish I could trust other’s information. I have wished that my entire life. It is frequently exhausting and damn hard to question this much of what people say. But I want to be correct, not merely pleasant, and that’s life.
Eliezer intended for us to question authority. I’d have done it anyway because I started doing that ages ago. But he said in no uncertain terms that this is what he wants:
In Two More Things to Unlearn from School he warns his readers that “It may be dangerous to present people with a giant mass of authoritative knowledge, especially if it is actually true. It may damage their skepticism.”
In Cached Thoughts he tells you to question what HE says. “Now that you’ve read this blog post, the next time you hear someone unhesitatingly repeating a meme you think is silly or false, you’ll think, “Cached thoughts.” My belief is now there in your mind, waiting to complete the pattern. But is it true? Don’t let your mind complete the pattern! Think!”
Perhaps there is a way to be more pleasant while still questioning everything. If you can think of something, I will consider it.
I’m not saying that a hypothetical vague “you” shouldn’t question things. I’m saying that you specifically, User: Epiphany, seem to not be very well-calibrated in this respect and should update towards questioning things less until you have a better feel for LessWrong discussion norms and epistemic standards.
Neither was I:
So, trust you guys more while I’m still trying to figure out how much to trust you? Not going to happen, sorry.
So you’re trying to figure out how much to trust “us,” but you’re only willing to update in the negative direction?
Perhaps the perception you’re having is caused by the fact that you did not know how cynical I was when I started. My trust has increased quite a bit. If I appear not to trust Alicorn very much, this is because I’ve seen what appears to be an unusually high number of mistakes. I realize that this may be due to biased sample (I haven’t read thousands of Alicorn’s posts, maybe a dozen or so). But I’m not going to update with information I don’t have, and I don’t see it as a good use of time to go reading lots and lots of posts by Alicorn and whoever else trying to figure out how much to trust them. I will have a realistic idea of her eventually.
You might think about the reasons people have for saying the things they say. Why do people make false statements? The most common reasons probably fall under intentional deception (“lying”), indifference toward telling the truth (“bullshitting”), having been deceived by another, motivated cognition, confabulation, or mistake. As you’ve noticed, scientists and educators can face situations where complete integrity and honesty comes into conflict with their own career objectives, but there’s no apparent incentive for anyone to distort the truth about the name of the Center for Applied Rationality. There’s also no apparent motivation for Alicorn to bullshit or confabulate; if she isn’t quite sure she remembers the name, she doesn’t have anything to lose by simply moving on without commenting, nor does she have much to gain by getting away with posting the wrong name. That leaves the possibility that she has the wrong name by an unintended mistake. But different people’s chances of making a mistake are not necessarily equal. By being more directly involved with the organization, Alicorn has had many more opportunities to be corrected about the name than you have. That makes it much more likely that you are the one making the mistake, as turned out to be the case.
You could phrase your questions as questions rather than statements. You could also take extra care to confirm your facts before you preface a statement with “no, actually”.
I know. But it’s possible for her to be unaware of the existence of CFMR, had there been two orgs. If you read the entire disagreement, you’ll notice that what it came down to is that it did not occur to me that CFMR might have changed it’s name. Therefore, denial that it existed appeared to be in direct conflict with the evidence. The evidence being two articles where people were creating CFMR.
I was surprised she didn’t seem to know about it, but then again, if she doesn’t read every single post on here, it’s possible she didn’t know. I don’t know how much she knows, or who she specifically talks to, or how often she talks to them, or whether she might have been out sick for a month or what might have happened. For something that small, I am not going to go to great lengths to analyze her every potential motive for being correct or incorrect. My assessment was simple for that reason.
As for wanting to trust people more, I’ve been thinking about ways to go about that, but I doubt I will do it by trying to rule out every possible reason for them to have been wrong. That’s a long list, and it’s dependent upon my imperfect ability to think of all the reasons that a person might be wrong. I’m more likely to go about it from a totally different angle: How many scientists are there? What things do most of them agree on? How many of those have been proven false? Okay, that’s an estimated X percent chance that what most scientists believe is actually true based on sample set of (whatever) size.
This is a good suggestion, and I normally do.
I did confirm my fact with two articles. That is why it became a “no actually” instead of a question.
I do read every single post on here. (Well, I skim technical ones.)