You’re putting a lot of importance on the “likely” here:
Superintelligence is likely to arrive within the next 20 years
What if it doesn’t? Reaching retirement age with no savings sucks pretty badly (especially if you’re used to spending your entire income). Short AI timelines might push you in the direction of smaller retirement savings (taking a risk of things being a little worse in timelines you think are unlikely), but probably not all the way to “don’t save for retirement”. You should also put at least some weight on AGI happening and somehow the world still existing in a recognizable form (since this is what has happened every other time a world-changing technology was created).
Something else to consider is that retirement isn’t the only reason to have savings. If you think AI timelines are short, you might want to have a giant pile of money you can strategically deploy to do things like quit your job and work on alignment for a few years (or pay someone else to).
You’re putting a lot of importance on the “likely” here:
What if it doesn’t? Reaching retirement age with no savings sucks pretty badly (especially if you’re used to spending your entire income). Short AI timelines might push you in the direction of smaller retirement savings (taking a risk of things being a little worse in timelines you think are unlikely), but probably not all the way to “don’t save for retirement”. You should also put at least some weight on AGI happening and somehow the world still existing in a recognizable form (since this is what has happened every other time a world-changing technology was created).
Something else to consider is that retirement isn’t the only reason to have savings. If you think AI timelines are short, you might want to have a giant pile of money you can strategically deploy to do things like quit your job and work on alignment for a few years (or pay someone else to).