I think this is an important question and am glad to see it brought up. I think it is a question that requires a good amount of Taking Ideas Seriously.
Zvi discusses it here. My interpretation/summary of his answer: “You should still save up money because there are some future scenarios where having a pile of money will be useful.” I would have liked to see more elaboration. What future scenarios? How likely are they? What about the question of retirement?
Personally, here’s how I think about it.
If we have a FOOM:
One possibility is that we’re in a utopia and one’s savings don’t matter.
One possibility is that we’re in a dystopia and one’s savings don’t matter.
One possibility is that we’re in some sort of world where one’s savings do matter.
One possibility is that we’re in some sort of world where one’s savings don’t matter.
If we don’t have a FOOM:
One possibility is that we’re in a utopia and one’s savings don’t matter.
One possibility is that we’re in a dystopia and one’s savings don’t matter.
One possibility is that we’re in some sort of world where one’s savings do matter.
One possibility is that we’re in some sort of world where one’s savings don’t matter.
I’m not sure how likely each of these scenarios are. If we have FOOM, it does seem like 1a or 1b will happen rather than 1c or 1d. It’s a hard thing to think about though and I have significant uncertainty.
But for me, the dominant consideration is probably that I want a sense of normalcy. Saving for retirement helps with that and for me personally doesn’t have a large downside.
I also think what Zvi says makes sense. Having a pile of money seems wise for reasons other than retirement.
I think this is an important question and am glad to see it brought up. I think it is a question that requires a good amount of Taking Ideas Seriously.
Zvi discusses it here. My interpretation/summary of his answer: “You should still save up money because there are some future scenarios where having a pile of money will be useful.” I would have liked to see more elaboration. What future scenarios? How likely are they? What about the question of retirement?
Personally, here’s how I think about it.
If we have a FOOM:
One possibility is that we’re in a utopia and one’s savings don’t matter.
One possibility is that we’re in a dystopia and one’s savings don’t matter.
One possibility is that we’re in some sort of world where one’s savings do matter.
One possibility is that we’re in some sort of world where one’s savings don’t matter.
If we don’t have a FOOM:
One possibility is that we’re in a utopia and one’s savings don’t matter.
One possibility is that we’re in a dystopia and one’s savings don’t matter.
One possibility is that we’re in some sort of world where one’s savings do matter.
One possibility is that we’re in some sort of world where one’s savings don’t matter.
I’m not sure how likely each of these scenarios are. If we have FOOM, it does seem like 1a or 1b will happen rather than 1c or 1d. It’s a hard thing to think about though and I have significant uncertainty.
But for me, the dominant consideration is probably that I want a sense of normalcy. Saving for retirement helps with that and for me personally doesn’t have a large downside.
I also think what Zvi says makes sense. Having a pile of money seems wise for reasons other than retirement.