Example with fake numbers: my favorite intervention is X. My favorite intervention in a year will probably be (stuff very similar to) X. I value $1 for X now equally to $1.7 for X in a year. I value $1.7 for X in a year equally to $1.4 unrestricted in a year, since it’s possible that I’ll believe something else is substantially better than X. So I should wait to donate if my expected rate of return is >40%; without this consideration I’d only wait if my expected rate of return is >70%.
Example with fake numbers: my favorite intervention is X. My favorite intervention in a year will probably be (stuff very similar to) X. I value $1 for X now equally to $1.7 for X in a year. I value $1.7 for X in a year equally to $1.4 unrestricted in a year, since it’s possible that I’ll believe something else is substantially better than X. So I should wait to donate if my expected rate of return is >40%; without this consideration I’d only wait if my expected rate of return is >70%.