Also, this incident seems like a net loss for PR, so it being a strategy for
more donations doesn’t really seem to make sense.
There are PR upsides: the shephard protects his flock from the unspeakable danger; it makes for good drama and folklaw; there’s opportunity for further drama caused by leaks. Also, it shows everyone who’s the boss.
A popular motto claims that there is no such thing as bad publicity.
Firstly, if there’s an unspeakable danger, surely it’d be best to try and not let others be exposed, so this one’s really a question of if it’s dangerous, and not an argument in itself. It’s only a PR stunt if it’s not dangerous, if it’s dangerous good PR would merely be a side effect.
The drama was bad IMO. Looks like bad publicity to me.
I discredit the PR stunt idea because I don’t think SIAI would’ve dumb enough to pull something like this as a stunt. If we were being modeled as ones who’d simply go along with a lie- well, there’s no way we’d be modeled as such fools. If we were modeled as ones who would look at a lie carefully, a PR stunt wouldn’t work anyways.
There’s also the fact that people who have read the post and are unaffiliated with the SIAI are taking it seriously. That says something, too.
Edit: Why do I keep getting downvoted?
This comment wasn’t meant sarcastically, though it might’ve been worded carelessly. I’m also confused about the other two in this thread that got downvoted.
Not blaming you, wnoise.
I discredit the PR stunt idea because I don’t think SIAI would’ve dumb enough
to pull something like this as a stunt. If we were being modeled as ones who’d
simply go along with a lie- well, there’s no way we’d be modeled as such fools.
If we were modeled as ones who would look at a lie carefully, a PR stunt
wouldn’t work anyways.
Well, it doesn’t really matter what the people involved were thinking, the issue is whether all the associated drama eventually has a net positive or negative effect. It evidently drives some people away—but may increase engagement and interest among those who remain. I can see how it contributes to the site’s mythology and mystique—even if to me it looks more like a car crash that I can’t help looking at.
It may not be over yet—we may see more drama around the forbidden topic in the future—with the possibility of leaks, and further transgressions. After all, if this is really such a terrible risk, shouldn’t other people be aware of it—so they can avoid thinking about it for themselves?
Firstly, if there’s an unspeakable danger, surely it’d be best to try and not let others be exposed, so this one’s really a question of if it’s dangerous
Not quite. It’s a question of what the probability that it’s dangerous is, what the magnitude of the effect is if so, what the cost (including goodwill and credibility) to suppressing it are, and what the cost (including psychological harm to third parties) to not suppressing it is. To make a proper judgement, you must determine all four of these, separately, and perform the expected utility computation (probabiltiy effect-if-dangerous + effect-if-not-dangerous vs cost). A sufficiently large magnitude of effect is sufficient to outweigh both* a small probability and large cost.
That’s the problem here. Some people see a small probability, round it off to 0, and see that the effect-if-not-dangerous isn’t huge, and conclude that it’s ok to talk about it, without computing the expected utility.
I tell you that I have done the computation, and that the utility of hearing, discussing, and allowing discussion of the banned topic are all negative. Furthermore, they are negative by enough orders of magnitude that I believe anyone who concludes otherwise must be either missing a piece of information vital to the computation, or have made an error in their reasoning. They remain negative even if one of the probability or the effect-if-not-dangerous is set to zero. Both missing information and miscalculation are especially likely—the former because information is not readily shared on this topic, and the latter because it is inherently confusing.
You also have to calculate what the effectiveness of your suppression is. If that effectiveness is negative, as is plausibly the case with hamhanded tactics, the rest of the calculation is moot.
Also, I believe I have information about the supposed threat. I think that there are several flaws in the supposed mechanisms, but that even if all the effects work as advertised, there is a factor which you’re not considering which makes 0 the only stable value for the effect-if-dangerous in current conditions.
I agree with you about the effect-if-not-dangerous. This is a good argument, and should be your main one, because you can largely make it without touching the third rail. That would allow an explicit, rather than a secret, policy, which would reduce the costs of supression considerably.
Some of us are okay with rejecting Pascal’s Mugging by using heuristics and injunctions, even though the expected utility calculation contradicts our choice. Why not reject the basilisk in the same way?
For what it’s worth, over the last few weeks I’ve slowly updated to considering the ban a Very Bad Thing. One of the reasons: the CEV document hasn’t changed (or even been marked dubious/obsolete), though it really should have.
I tell you that I have done the computation, and that the utility of hearing,
discussing, and allowing discussion of the banned topic are all negative.
Furthermore, they are negative by enough orders of magnitude that I
believe anyone who concludes otherwise must be either missing a
piece of information vital to the computation, or have made an error
in their reasoning. They remain negative even if one of the probability
or the effect-if-not-dangerous is set to zero.
You sum doesn’t seem like useful evidence. You can’t cite your sources, because that information is self-censored. Since you can’t support your argument, I am not sure why you are bothering to post it. People are supposed to think you conclusions are true—because Jim said so? Pah! Support your assertions, or drop them.
There are PR upsides: the shephard protects his flock from the unspeakable danger; it makes for good drama and folklaw; there’s opportunity for further drama caused by leaks. Also, it shows everyone who’s the boss.
A popular motto claims that there is no such thing as bad publicity.
Firstly, if there’s an unspeakable danger, surely it’d be best to try and not let others be exposed, so this one’s really a question of if it’s dangerous, and not an argument in itself. It’s only a PR stunt if it’s not dangerous, if it’s dangerous good PR would merely be a side effect.
The drama was bad IMO. Looks like bad publicity to me.
I discredit the PR stunt idea because I don’t think SIAI would’ve dumb enough to pull something like this as a stunt. If we were being modeled as ones who’d simply go along with a lie- well, there’s no way we’d be modeled as such fools. If we were modeled as ones who would look at a lie carefully, a PR stunt wouldn’t work anyways.
There’s also the fact that people who have read the post and are unaffiliated with the SIAI are taking it seriously. That says something, too.
Well, many are only taking it seriously under pain of censorship.
I dunno, I’d call that putting up with it.
Edit: Why do I keep getting downvoted? This comment wasn’t meant sarcastically, though it might’ve been worded carelessly. I’m also confused about the other two in this thread that got downvoted. Not blaming you, wnoise.
Edit2: Back to zeroes. Huh.
I only just read your comments and my votes seem to bring you up to 1.
Well, it doesn’t really matter what the people involved were thinking, the issue is whether all the associated drama eventually has a net positive or negative effect. It evidently drives some people away—but may increase engagement and interest among those who remain. I can see how it contributes to the site’s mythology and mystique—even if to me it looks more like a car crash that I can’t help looking at.
It may not be over yet—we may see more drama around the forbidden topic in the future—with the possibility of leaks, and further transgressions. After all, if this is really such a terrible risk, shouldn’t other people be aware of it—so they can avoid thinking about it for themselves?
Not quite. It’s a question of what the probability that it’s dangerous is, what the magnitude of the effect is if so, what the cost (including goodwill and credibility) to suppressing it are, and what the cost (including psychological harm to third parties) to not suppressing it is. To make a proper judgement, you must determine all four of these, separately, and perform the expected utility computation (probabiltiy effect-if-dangerous + effect-if-not-dangerous vs cost). A sufficiently large magnitude of effect is sufficient to outweigh both* a small probability and large cost.
That’s the problem here. Some people see a small probability, round it off to 0, and see that the effect-if-not-dangerous isn’t huge, and conclude that it’s ok to talk about it, without computing the expected utility.
I tell you that I have done the computation, and that the utility of hearing, discussing, and allowing discussion of the banned topic are all negative. Furthermore, they are negative by enough orders of magnitude that I believe anyone who concludes otherwise must be either missing a piece of information vital to the computation, or have made an error in their reasoning. They remain negative even if one of the probability or the effect-if-not-dangerous is set to zero. Both missing information and miscalculation are especially likely—the former because information is not readily shared on this topic, and the latter because it is inherently confusing.
You also have to calculate what the effectiveness of your suppression is. If that effectiveness is negative, as is plausibly the case with hamhanded tactics, the rest of the calculation is moot.
Also, I believe I have information about the supposed threat. I think that there are several flaws in the supposed mechanisms, but that even if all the effects work as advertised, there is a factor which you’re not considering which makes 0 the only stable value for the effect-if-dangerous in current conditions.
I agree with you about the effect-if-not-dangerous. This is a good argument, and should be your main one, because you can largely make it without touching the third rail. That would allow an explicit, rather than a secret, policy, which would reduce the costs of supression considerably.
Tiny probabilities of vast utilities again?
Some of us are okay with rejecting Pascal’s Mugging by using heuristics and injunctions, even though the expected utility calculation contradicts our choice. Why not reject the basilisk in the same way?
For what it’s worth, over the last few weeks I’ve slowly updated to considering the ban a Very Bad Thing. One of the reasons: the CEV document hasn’t changed (or even been marked dubious/obsolete), though it really should have.
You sum doesn’t seem like useful evidence. You can’t cite your sources, because that information is self-censored. Since you can’t support your argument, I am not sure why you are bothering to post it. People are supposed to think you conclusions are true—because Jim said so? Pah! Support your assertions, or drop them.