The main use of outside views is to argue that people with inside views are overconfident, presumably because they haven’t considered enough failure modes or delays. Thus your reference class should include some details of the inside view.
Thus I reject your reference classes “things promising eternal life” and “beliefs in almost omnipotent good or evil beings” as not having inside views worth speaking of. “Predictions based on technology which isn’t even remotely here” is OK.
The main use of outside views is to argue that people with inside views are overconfident, presumably because they haven’t considered enough failure modes or delays. Thus your reference class should include some details of the inside view.
Thus I reject your reference classes “things promising eternal life” and “beliefs in almost omnipotent good or evil beings” as not having inside views worth speaking of. “Predictions based on technology which isn’t even remotely here” is OK.