Based on my understanding, it was not known in 40s that US has 4 years advantage. Stalin started to claim “knowing nuclear secret” in 1947, but some US planners expected that it would take 10-20 years for Soviet Union to create the bomb.
Also, in 1949, the number of US nukes were not enough to stop Soviet army from ground invasion in Western Europe, which it would surely do in case of attack in Moscow.
Also, most of the soviet nuclear program was decentralised in secret unknown locations, which could not be destroyed without thermonuclear weapons or precise missiles, both non existed at the time.
Also US could not spend all its nukes on the first strike as it would mean effective disarmament, so the capabilities of the first strike was limited.
Thus I think that there was an advantage but not “decisive knowable” advantage, and such advantage in the case of nuclear weapons would be reached in 10 but not in 4 years.
Based on my understanding, it was not known in 40s that US has 4 years advantage. Stalin started to claim “knowing nuclear secret” in 1947, but some US planners expected that it would take 10-20 years for Soviet Union to create the bomb.
Also, in 1949, the number of US nukes were not enough to stop Soviet army from ground invasion in Western Europe, which it would surely do in case of attack in Moscow.
Also, most of the soviet nuclear program was decentralised in secret unknown locations, which could not be destroyed without thermonuclear weapons or precise missiles, both non existed at the time.
Also US could not spend all its nukes on the first strike as it would mean effective disarmament, so the capabilities of the first strike was limited.
Thus I think that there was an advantage but not “decisive knowable” advantage, and such advantage in the case of nuclear weapons would be reached in 10 but not in 4 years.