An epistemic theory of populism [link post to Joseph Heath]

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The following is an AI-generated summary

Populism Fast and Slow—Summary

Joseph Heath argues that existing academic definitions of populism—whether treating it as an ideology or merely an electoral strategy—are inadequate. He proposes understanding populism through the lens of dual-process cognitive theory (Kahneman’s “fast and slow” thinking).

Core Argument

Populism is a political strategy that privileges intuitive cognition (System 1: fast, effortless, “common sense”) over analytical reasoning (System 2: slow, effortful, requiring expertise). This creates a fundamental divide between “the people” who rely on intuition and “elites” who employ analytical thinking.

Why This Matters

Many evolved cognitive intuitions work poorly in modern large-scale societies. For example:

  • People intuitively overestimate punishment’s effectiveness (due to regression-to-mean bias)

  • They misunderstand trade and immigration economics

  • They struggle with collective action problems

When experts develop views contradicting these intuitions through analytical reasoning, it creates lasting resentment. Populist politicians exploit this gap by championing common sense views on issues where elite consensus is strongest.

Why Populism Thrives Now

Social media accelerates communication, favoring fast intuitive responses over slow analytical ones. It also removes elite gatekeepers, allowing direct appeals to popular intuition.

Specific Features Explained

  1. Crime/​immigration stances—Intuition favors punishment over expert consensus on effectiveness

  2. Poor handling of collective action problems—Intuition suggests blaming others rather than coordinated restraint

  3. Stream-of-consciousness speaking style—Demonstrates lack of verbal inhibition, perceived as “honesty”

  4. Illiberalism—Difficulty with abstract liberal principles requiring cognitive decoupling

  5. Conspiracy thinking—Natural cognitive bias toward conspiracism requires active analytical suppression

Why the Left Struggles

The rebellion is against cognitive elites, not economic ones. The left’s progressive agenda requires more cognitive inhibition and control (e.g., language policing, navigating complex bureaucracies), intensifying the very burdens that fuel populist resentment.