(FYI I was playing to maximize EV rather than skewing my guesses to increase variance.)
My Calibration:
1-10: 0⁄11 (0%)
11-20: 4⁄11 (36%) (includes the “tricky” #121 and #122, without which is a more reasonable 18%)
21-30: 2⁄4 (50%) (-)
31-40: 3⁄8 (38%)
41-50: 5⁄7 (71%) (-)
51-60: 14⁄22 (64%)
61-70: 17⁄31 (55%) (+)
71-80: 13⁄23 (57%) (+)
81-90: 4⁄4 (100%)
91-100: (None)
Points breakdown:
3.0 points for my (3) zero predictions (my own #96 string, the 9-containing #106, and the obviously silly #66).
10.8 points for my (11) 1-10 predictions (all correct).
−4.3 points for my (2) 11% predictions on the “tricky” #121 and #122 strings.
2.9 points for my other (9) 11-20 predictions
0.0 points for my (41) 21-60 predictions
−3.8 points for my (54) 61-80 predictions (most of my overconfidence is here)
3.4 points for my (4) 81-90 predictions (all correct).
(12.0 total)
I’m curious if participants #99, #107 and #124 care to say why they gave my string (#96) the scores they did.
(FYI I was playing to maximize EV rather than skewing my guesses to increase variance.)
My Calibration:
1-10: 0⁄11 (0%)
11-20: 4⁄11 (36%) (includes the “tricky” #121 and #122, without which is a more reasonable 18%)
21-30: 2⁄4 (50%) (-)
31-40: 3⁄8 (38%)
41-50: 5⁄7 (71%) (-)
51-60: 14⁄22 (64%)
61-70: 17⁄31 (55%) (+)
71-80: 13⁄23 (57%) (+)
81-90: 4⁄4 (100%)
91-100: (None)
Points breakdown:
3.0 points for my (3) zero predictions (my own #96 string, the 9-containing #106, and the obviously silly #66).
10.8 points for my (11) 1-10 predictions (all correct).
−4.3 points for my (2) 11% predictions on the “tricky” #121 and #122 strings.
2.9 points for my other (9) 11-20 predictions
0.0 points for my (41) 21-60 predictions
−3.8 points for my (54) 61-80 predictions (most of my overconfidence is here)
3.4 points for my (4) 81-90 predictions (all correct).
(12.0 total)
I’m curious if participants #99, #107 and #124 care to say why they gave my string (#96) the scores they did.