Sleep time will desynchronize from local day/night cycles
Sleep time will synchronize more closely to local day/night cycles.
Investment strategies based on energy return on energy invested (EROEI) will dramatically outperform traditional financial metrics
No strong opinion. Finance will lose its relevance.
none of raw compue, data, or bandwidth constraints will turn out to be the reason AI has not reached human capability levels
Lack of AI consciousness and preference not to use AI will turn out to be the reason AI will never reach human level.
Supply chains will deglobalize
Quite likely partially, but probably there will also be a growth in esoteric products, which might actually lead to more international trade on a quantitative level.
People will adopt a more heliocentric view
We are currently in a high-leverage situation where the way the moderate-term future sees our position in the universe is especially sensitive to perturbations. But rationalist-empiricist-reductionists opt out of the ability to influence this, and instead the results of future measurement instruments will depend on what certain non-rationalist-empiricist-reductionists do.
Any protocol can be serialized, so in principle if you had the hardware and software necessary to translate from and to the “neuralese” dialect of the sender and recipient, you could serialize that as text over the wire. But I think the load-bearing part is the ability to read, write, and translate the experiences that are upstream of language.
One could expect “everyone can visceral understand the lived experiences of others” to lead to a golden age as you describe, though it doesn’t really feel like your world model. But conditioning on it not being something about the flows of energy that come from the sun and the ecological those flows of energy flow through, it’s still my guess for generating those predictions (under the assumption that the predictions were generated by “find something I think is true and underappreciated about the world, come up with the wildest implications according to the lesswrong worldview, phrase them narrowly enough to seem crackpottish, don’t elaborate”)
Ah. Not quite what you’re asking about, but omniscience through higher consciousness is likely under my scenario.
find something I think is true and underappreciated about the world, come up with the wildest implications according to the lesswrong worldview, phrase them narrowly enough to seem crackpottish, don’t elaborate
Not sure what you mean by “phrase them narrowly enough to seem crackpottish”. I would seem much more crackpottish if I gave the underlying logic behind it, unless maybe I bring in a lot of context.
Which of the following do you additionally predict?
Sleep time will desynchronize from local day/night cycles
Investment strategies based on energy return on energy invested (EROEI) will dramatically outperform traditional financial metrics
none of raw compue, data, or bandwidth constraints will turn out to be the reason AI has not reached human capability levels
Supply chains will deglobalize
People will adopt a more heliocentric view
Sleep time will synchronize more closely to local day/night cycles.
No strong opinion. Finance will lose its relevance.
Lack of AI consciousness and preference not to use AI will turn out to be the reason AI will never reach human level.
Quite likely partially, but probably there will also be a growth in esoteric products, which might actually lead to more international trade on a quantitative level.
We are currently in a high-leverage situation where the way the moderate-term future sees our position in the universe is especially sensitive to perturbations. But rationalist-empiricist-reductionists opt out of the ability to influence this, and instead the results of future measurement instruments will depend on what certain non-rationalist-empiricist-reductionists do.
Telepathy?
For most practical purposes we already have that. What would you do with telepathy that you can’t do with internet text messaging?
Any protocol can be serialized, so in principle if you had the hardware and software necessary to translate from and to the “neuralese” dialect of the sender and recipient, you could serialize that as text over the wire. But I think the load-bearing part is the ability to read, write, and translate the experiences that are upstream of language.
One could expect “everyone can visceral understand the lived experiences of others” to lead to a golden age as you describe, though it doesn’t really feel like your world model. But conditioning on it not being something about the flows of energy that come from the sun and the ecological those flows of energy flow through, it’s still my guess for generating those predictions (under the assumption that the predictions were generated by “find something I think is true and underappreciated about the world, come up with the wildest implications according to the lesswrong worldview, phrase them narrowly enough to seem crackpottish, don’t elaborate”)
Ah. Not quite what you’re asking about, but omniscience through higher consciousness is likely under my scenario.
Not sure what you mean by “phrase them narrowly enough to seem crackpottish”. I would seem much more crackpottish if I gave the underlying logic behind it, unless maybe I bring in a lot of context.