When I tried it (in OpenRouter, to avoid ChatGPT using past conversations and to easily use a bunch of models), 04 mini gave
• Evidential (or “timeless”/UDT-style) decision theory says: your choice is strong evidence of what Omega predicted. If you one-box, you almost surely get $1 000 000; if you two-box, you almost surely get only $1 000. So you one-box.
and Gemini gave
If I am the type of agent that follows Evidential Decision Theory (or a more advanced version like Timeless Decision Theory), the Predictor will know this. It will predict I’ll one-box and put $1,000,000 in Box B. I will then follow my pre-commitment and one-box, walking away a millionaire.
While other models (40, Sonnet 4, Grok 3, R1 0528, Prover v2) gave usual one box CDT vs EDT responses.
But this is just one roll, I haven’t tried getting a sampling. Would be mildly interesting to see how question phrasing affects it.
When I tried it (in OpenRouter, to avoid ChatGPT using past conversations and to easily use a bunch of models), 04 mini gave
and Gemini gave
While other models (40, Sonnet 4, Grok 3, R1 0528, Prover v2) gave usual one box CDT vs EDT responses. But this is just one roll, I haven’t tried getting a sampling. Would be mildly interesting to see how question phrasing affects it.