I have a kind of romantic suspicion that nearly all politically active people are like this
That would be nice. But if all the politicians were so rational, then why in the name of Aumann’s agreement theorem would they disagree with each other so much?
Unless that too would be some kind of deception, necessary to achieve maximum utility. Maybe the average stupid humans (non-politicians) simply need to see a few battling factions, so if all these rational politicians suddenly stopped pretending to disagree with each other, the angry voters would vote for someone genuinely stupid, just to have more variety.
Well… I suppose politicians are on average more rational than average humans. At least instrumentally; this is why they are in politics, have power and make $$$, while the average citizen spends their time merely watching them on TV. And probably even epistemically; because I expect epistemic rationality to correlate somehow positively with instrumental rationality. And because there are some things that politicians must pretend, strategically, I expect them to be less mindkilled than they seem. And they also have better information on political topics. -- But all this considered, I think they are also prone to all human biases, just perhaps a bit less than the average human.
Maybe the average stupid humans (non-politicians) simply need to see a few battling factions, so if all these rational politicians suddenly stopped pretending to disagree with each other, the angry voters would vote for someone genuinely stupid, just to have more variety.
I think it makes more sense to look at the incentives of politicians. Politians want to win. They want to be reelected.
That means they have to somehow appear to be better than the other party.
Most politicans also think about their career. They have to impress fellow politicians.
I expect them to be less mindkilled than they seem.
(Nods) that’s really what I was trying to say, yeah.
Also it’s worth an NB that the AAT only applies to epistemic agreement, right? It doesn’t prevent groups from competing over resources: we agree that the pie is tasty, which is precisely why we’re fighting over it. Of course if you’re committed to fighting, then screwing with your enemy’s, and partially-committed ally’s, models of the world is a valid combat tactic.
That would be nice. But if all the politicians were so rational, then why in the name of Aumann’s agreement theorem would they disagree with each other so much?
Unless that too would be some kind of deception, necessary to achieve maximum utility. Maybe the average stupid humans (non-politicians) simply need to see a few battling factions, so if all these rational politicians suddenly stopped pretending to disagree with each other, the angry voters would vote for someone genuinely stupid, just to have more variety.
Well… I suppose politicians are on average more rational than average humans. At least instrumentally; this is why they are in politics, have power and make $$$, while the average citizen spends their time merely watching them on TV. And probably even epistemically; because I expect epistemic rationality to correlate somehow positively with instrumental rationality. And because there are some things that politicians must pretend, strategically, I expect them to be less mindkilled than they seem. And they also have better information on political topics. -- But all this considered, I think they are also prone to all human biases, just perhaps a bit less than the average human.
I think it makes more sense to look at the incentives of politicians. Politians want to win. They want to be reelected. That means they have to somehow appear to be better than the other party.
Most politicans also think about their career. They have to impress fellow politicians.
(Nods) that’s really what I was trying to say, yeah.
Also it’s worth an NB that the AAT only applies to epistemic agreement, right? It doesn’t prevent groups from competing over resources: we agree that the pie is tasty, which is precisely why we’re fighting over it. Of course if you’re committed to fighting, then screwing with your enemy’s, and partially-committed ally’s, models of the world is a valid combat tactic.